Currently, a rapid spread of infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease among large and small ruminants is observed in several regions of Azerbaijan. This situation arising in farming households is seriously affecting both the livestock sector and food security in general. Especially in the autumn season, against the backdrop of widespread disease, there may be a decrease in meat product production, which brings to the forefront the possibility of scarcity and price increases in the local market.
In a statement to Modern.az, economist expert Akif Nəsirli, discussing the risk of price increases in meat products in the coming months, noted that the average selling price of 1 kilogram of beef in the country is around 20.98 manats.
“Experts believe that serious risks are emerging in meat supply due to a decrease in animal numbers, an increase in early slaughter, and the widespread prevalence of diseases. The spread of the disease also directly affects the supply chain. Due to the risk of infection, the transportation of animals from one region to another may be restricted, some farm products may be deemed risky and not released to the market, and in addition to export restrictions, import difficulties may also arise. These situations reduce supply, creating a basis for price increases”.
The expert also stated that one of the main mechanisms affecting price increases amidst the disease is the decrease in production volume:
“The removal of animals suspected of infection or already diseased from sale leads to a decrease in overall supply in the market. Additionally, increased sanitary measures, vaccination, quarantine regimes, and logistics costs also raise the overall expenses of entrepreneurs engaged in livestock farming. These factors can result in higher prices. On the other hand, some consumers may reduce their demand for meat products, considering the risk of disease. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of reduced supply, price increases may also occur in other types of meat”.
According to A. Nəsirli, how long the price increase will continue and what level it might reach is determined by several factors:
“These include the scale of the disease's spread, government intervention measures, import-export capabilities, and the reaction of market participants. Considering that 1 kilogram of beef is currently around 21 manats, based on a medium-risk probability, the price is considered likely to fluctuate between 25-30 manats. This means an increase of approximately 20-40 percent. If the disease becomes more widespread, and if import and transport costs increase, the price could rise to around 30-35 manats”.
He also noted that these forecasts may change depending on the course of the real situation:
“The disease getting out of control could further weaken meat supply, and a decrease in producers' incomes could lead to a rapid reduction in animal numbers. At the same time, the suspension of exports or the emergence of import difficulties could increase the burden on the local market, accelerating price increases. On the other hand, timely intervention by the state and relevant agencies, prompt vaccination measures, strengthening sanitary control, and restricting animal movement can help control the spread of the disease and slow down price increases. Producers' efforts to maintain production despite all difficulties, as well as changes in consumer behavior, can also have a certain impact on price dynamics”.
The economist once again reminded that in the current situation, the price of meat is approximately 21 manats:
“Let me reiterate that if there is a supply shortage due to the disease, the price could rise to the 25-30 manat range. In a more severe situation, this figure could increase to 30-35 manats. However, these forecasts may change depending on the course of the situation and the reaction of relevant structures. The faster and more effectively the process can be managed, the more stable the price increase can remain”, A. Nəsirli stated.
