The wave of protests that began in Iran on December 28 of last year has today engulfed most of the country's major cities.
Political scientist Anar Aliyev, commenting on the events to Modern.az, stated that the reason for the protests is not solely the price increases, the deterioration of people's social welfare, and the worsening economic situation:
“Its root is deeper: it is the opportunities for the dissatisfaction accumulated within the people over the years to be expressed against the government. Because for many years, the regime has subjected its people only to force, never considered their interests, and displayed positions contrary to the state's interests.
The emerging dissatisfactions become more prominent against the backdrop of social events and gain opportunities for expression.
The ongoing events can be analyzed in several directions:
The regime's detachment from the people: The Iranian government is not a force that represents the interests of the people and maintains no connection with them.
Influence of external forces: Attempts by the Iranian government to deviate from the dictates of the Western neo-imperialist forces that brought it to power and its desire to violate those boundaries, as well as the desire of foreign powers to restore these boundaries.
Financial expenditures and crisis: For years, the regime has spent financial resources not on the welfare of the people, but on the formation and maintenance of proxy and terrorist groups in the region. This has led to a financial crisis and social dissatisfaction.
The 2025 war with Israel: This war showed that the power of the Iranian state consists only of propaganda; the people have already understood that the regime is weak and corrupt. This has strengthened the protests of the dissatisfied masses.
Turkey's activity: In recent months, Turkey's increased activity in the region and its expansion of processes through cooperation with Iran are not in line with the interests of Western powers. This increases the impact of processes both between Turkey and Iran, and in Syria and Iraq.
An interesting point is that Azerbaijanis, who have been the leading force in all major protests and revolutions in Iran, are not playing a very active role in this process.
Looking at history, both during the Islamic Revolution and in subsequent protests, Azerbaijanis have always been the side that suffered blows and possessed influence.
Therefore, there is a high probability that the regime will primarily inflict serious blows on Azerbaijanis when suppressing protests.
External support is crucial for the success of revolutions. After a protest begins, the open support of foreign forces expands the movement and strengthens the position of the protesters.
In the protests that began in 2022 with the killing of Mahsa Amini, the US and other democratic forces did not provide open, real financial support; they remained only at the level of words and statements".
