The next parliamentary elections in Armenia will be held in June 2026. The question of whether the Russian factor will be decisive in the elections is under attention.
Political scientist Sahil İsgəndərov, who gave a statement to Modern.az on this matter, stated that Yerevan's increasing inclination towards the West and its shift to the Western camp is met with irritation by Moscow. This situation is an important factor conditioning Russia's influence in Armenia:
"I believe that the main reason Moscow is not taking very harsh steps in this context regarding Armenia is the difficulties Russia is currently facing on the Ukrainian front.
Because Moscow has, so to speak, temporarily put aside its plan to punish Armenia. As I mentioned, Russia currently faces more serious problems”.
According to the political scientist, this does not mean that Russia will not attempt to influence Armenia's electoral process in the upcoming elections:
"Approximately 4–5 months ago, serious information leaked that a special group had been created in the Russian Presidential Administration, under the control of individuals connected to the former head of Russia's agent network and former Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan's team. The specific purpose of this group is to regulate relations with Armenia and prevent the weakening of Russia's influence in Armenia.
Incidentally, the recent serious warnings issued to Armenia regarding economic cooperation by high-ranking officials of the Russian government, particularly by the government itself, also confirm this.
Of course, Russia will try to influence those elections in one way or another through the “5th column” in Armenia. Specifically, in the upcoming elections, it will strive for the parties of the Kocharyan–Sargsyan tandem — forces within its sphere of influence — to gain seats in parliament and be represented as much as possible.
True, but this by no means implies that Russia's future plan is specifically to see Kocharyan or Sargsyan back in power”.
Sahil İsgəndərov emphasized that it is not excluded that Russia will try to ensure that individuals connected to its special services gain seats in parliament, and Moscow hopes for this:
"The issue of the participation of Samvel Karapetyan, an Armenian-born Russian businessman currently imprisoned and accused of “anti-state activities,” and his nephew Narek Karapetyan in these processes also draws attention. When the program of the party they founded was announced, it was stated that they would participate in the elections and strive to win.
It is probably no secret to anyone that Russia is precisely behind this project created by the Karapetyans, and that Moscow's political support is very clearly evident. In my opinion, this is no longer an obscure matter for anyone".
Javid Zahidoglu
