On November 29, a Ukrainian delegation departed for the United States to discuss a peace plan. Negotiations were held in Miami. The US sought to resolve all disputes with Ukraine regarding two key points of the peace plan – territorial issues and security guarantees.
Subsequently, Zelensky's statement during a phone conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that everything could change brought the possibility of ending the war to the forefront.
The period after the cessation of the war, however, is of interest. Some experts suggest that after the war ends, Russia may increase its focus on other regions.
In a statement to Modern.az, political analyst Elkhan Shahinoglu stated that if the Russia-Ukraine war ceases, Moscow will turn its attention to new targets:
“Although the US is increasing its efforts to stop the Russia-Ukraine war, the war continues with full intensity. The main demand of the Russian President is the handover by Ukraine of not only the territories they have occupied but also other territories they have been unable to occupy. Ukraine can never agree to this. In such circumstances, achieving a ceasefire is difficult. However, even if there is a slight possibility of an agreement, and if Russia, God forbid, secures its victory in Ukraine, it will not be content with Ukraine. In the past, after occupying Georgia, it annexed Crimea, and then attacked Ukraine. Now it will choose other targets.”
According to the political analyst, these targets could be in Europe, the South Caucasus, or Central Asia:
“In Europe, the Baltic countries, Poland, and Moldova, and in Central Asia, Kazakhstan, could face danger. Although Kazakhstan is Russia's so-called strategic ally, Russian officials do not hide their territorial claims against Kazakhstan. In the South Caucasus, however, Russia's influence over Azerbaijan is not possible. Because we put an end to a 200-year-old issue, cleared our lands of separatists, and removed Russian military personnel from our country. But Russia's influence over Armenia exists. They could stage a coup, commit acts of terror, and create certain obstacles to the signing of a peace agreement.”
The political analyst emphasized that for this very reason, Pashinyan must make a decision without delay: “Pashinyan should go for early elections and sign a peace agreement quickly so that Russia cannot act swiftly. There is also a great need for Armenia to start construction related to the Zangezur corridor.”
