Significant progress has been made towards peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia since the Washington summit on August 8. The new realities created by Azerbaijan have led to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's reconciliation with the current situation. Although Nikol Pashinyan was forced into this, the main issue is his understanding of it. Pashinyan's opponents, however, have not yet abandoned their separatist and revanchist tendencies. In this regard, who wins the parliamentary elections to be held in Armenia in June 2026 will significantly impact the processes.
What will happen if Pashinyan is not elected?
In a statement to Modern.az, political scientist Zaur Məmmədov stated that the parliamentary elections to be held in Armenia next June are of great importance:
“The elections are closely monitored not only in Armenia but also in Azerbaijan. This is because new processes are unfolding in the South Caucasus. The outcome of the elections will directly affect the processes in the South Caucasus. This is precisely due to several factors. In Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili was deliberately removed from power by the US and Russia in 2011. We cannot say what agreements exist regarding Nikol Pashinyan. I believe that the US will stand by Pashinyan. However, certain negotiations may also take place in one way or another".
The political scientist emphasized that if power changes in Armenia, a new war could also be discussed:
"As is known, a new stage has begun after the peace text initialed at the Washington summit. Today, a decision was also made regarding the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group. The past issues that concerned us, most importantly the Armenian issue, no longer exist. However, naturally, some will want to bring the Armenian issue back to the agenda, and some will demonstrate their levers of influence around this issue. In one way or another, regardless of the outcome of the parliamentary elections in Armenia, we can predict that some countries will already increase elements of pressure on Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus. In any case, opening a new page between Azerbaijan and Armenia is extremely important. These are historical processes promising new perspectives for the South Caucasus. If power changes in Armenia, we can talk not only about peace but also about a new war, which could fundamentally alter the situation".
