Iran is currently experiencing one of the deepest structural crises of recent decades. Mass protests have already moved beyond the stage of local social discontent and transformed into a crisis of political legitimacy. This process not only determines Iran's internal fate but is also becoming one of the key factors that will shape the future of Middle East geopolitics.
The main driver of the protests in Iran is macroeconomic collapse. The value of the national currency, the rial, has fallen to a historic low, inflation exceeds 50 percent, and food, medicine, and energy prices are out of control. The middle class has degraded, and poverty has become widespread.
The existing balance of legitimacy between the state and society has been disrupted. As you may have noticed, in the initial phase, the protests began with economic demands. Slogans such as "wages," "subsidies," "unemployment," etc., were chanted. However, in a short period, this process transformed into anti-system political mobilization. Now, the main demand is regime change.
Geography and Social Base of the Protests
The protests now cover 31 provinces. This includes not only Tehran but also major centers such as Tabriz, Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, and Ahvaz.
The social groups participating in the process are also diverse. Youth, the unemployed, the bazaar class, students, and ethnic communities are in the streets.
This indicates the formation of a cross-class social alliance, a stage at which authoritarian regimes historically falter.
Tehran is responding to the protests with classic repressive state tools. Internet shutdowns, information blockades, mass arrests, military-police violence, and threats of execution have been directed at protesters.
All of this represents a loss of control, an attempt to suppress the crisis by force. History has shown that repression does not stop protests; on the contrary, it further radicalizes them.
The most dangerous phase, however, is yet to come. If the loyalty of the security forces falters, and police and lower-level military units side with the people, the system will enter a phase of collapse.
The Meaning of the Iran Crisis for the Region
Iran is one of the central power axes of the Middle East. Its internal destabilization will automatically disrupt the geopolitical balance in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Gulf in general.
With Iran's weakening, its proxy networks in the region—Hezbollah, Shia militias, and forces in Syria—will either weaken or become uncontrollable. This could create a chaotic power vacuum in the region.
If the crisis deepens, millions of Iranians could flee to neighboring countries. More importantly, ethnic issues in Iran are moving into the political arena. Azerbaijani Turks are the largest non-Persian bloc of the country's population. Their social discontent is gradually transforming into a form of national self-awareness. This is an identity crisis.
The Game of Global Powers
Iran has currently become a global geopolitical chessboard. The US wants to bring Iran under control. Trump's alarming statements also serve this purpose. Russia views Iran as a buffer against the West. China, meanwhile, uses Iran as an energy and trade route.
None of these powers want Iran to collapse, but they also do not want Iran to remain in its current format. This is a struggle for controlled transformation.
For oil and gas markets, Iran's destabilization could shake global prices.
Can Iran Turn into Syria?
Three conditions are necessary for "Syrianization." The army must fragment. The first symptoms of this are appearing. There must be foreign intervention. The US does not hide this desire. Internal armed groups must emerge. Protesters are in this status.
Overall, Iran is not currently at this stage, but it is rapidly approaching that trajectory. The longer the regime relies on violence, the greater this risk becomes.
The Issue of the Organization of Turkic States
Iran's accession to the OTS (Organization of Turkic States) is not possible today from a realpolitik perspective. However, this topic could become a reality.
Because Iran is historically part of the Turkic political space. A large part of the population here is of Turkic origin, they are Azerbaijanis. A normal leader would seek alternatives to escape regional isolation. Pezekşian has repeatedly stated this in different ways.
For this reason, Iran's integration with the Turkic world will remain a geopolitical alternative in the future. However, this is only possible if the regime changes.
Despite all this, it is evident that Iran is not facing ordinary protests but has entered a stage of transformation as a state.
This process will directly impact the region's borders, energy markets, the West-East balance, and the future role of the Turkic World.
Just as the front line in Ukraine is changing the world order today, tomorrow the Iran crisis could also alter the global power architecture.
Iran has become one of the main geopolitical knots of the 21st century.
Elnur AMIROV
