Iran is currently experiencing one of the deepest structural crises of recent decades. Mass protests have already moved beyond the stage of local social discontent and transformed into a crisis of political legitimacy. This process not only determines Iran's internal fate but is also becoming one of the key factors that will shape the future of Middle East geopolitics.
The main driver of the protests in Iran is macroeconomic collapse. The value of the national currency, the rial, has fallen to a historic low, inflation exceeds 50 percent, and food, medicine, and energy prices are out of control. The middle class has degraded, and poverty has become widespread.
The existing balance of legitimacy between the state and society has been disrupted. In the initial phase, protests began with economic demands. Slogans such as "wages," "subsidies," "unemployment," etc., were voiced. However, in a short period, this process transformed into anti-system political mobilization. Now, the main demand is for regime change.
Naturally, external interference is also evident in the ongoing events. US leader Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he stands with the protesters and would attack Iran if they were fired upon. It appears that the US wants to bring Iran under control. Iran's closest ally is Russia. Media has reported that several Russian planes have flown to Iran.
How Russia will support Iran is a noteworthy point.
In a statement to Modern.az, Russian political scientist Sergey Markov said that Russia supports Iran as a friendly and political partner country, but this support primarily manifests itself on the diplomatic level:
"Moscow demands that Western countries cease interfering in Iran's internal affairs. This position is fully consistent with Iran's interests, as one of official Tehran's main fears is precisely the involvement of foreign powers – particularly the US, European countries, and the Israeli factor – in Iran's internal affairs, attempting to overthrow the regime by creating unrest and uprisings within the country.
At the same time, this approach is consistent with the fundamental principles of Russian foreign policy – the principle of respect for state sovereignty. Some may argue that Russia has not adhered to this principle in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, but from Russia's perspective, this is not the case.
Russia is also ready to provide support to Tehran in areas vital for the Iranian economy. If a shortage of gasoline or food arises in Iran, threatening economic stability, Moscow states its readiness to provide immediate economic assistance. Generally, the Iranian economy is a sufficiently self-sufficient system. The country has lived under sanctions for many years and is considered one of the most successful countries in terms of adapting to sanctions.
In recent years, the systems developed by Iran in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles have attracted particular attention. These drones are actively used in Russia and have proven their high effectiveness. They have become an attractive example for many countries".
S. Markov emphasized that despite political and military cooperation between Russia and Iran, there is no formal military alliance between them:
"Regarding political and military cooperation, Russia and Iran support each other, but there is no formal military alliance between them. Russia is not obligated to provide military assistance to Iran in the event of a direct military attack by foreign states. However, assistance that could be provided to Iran may cover other areas.
Because Iran's problems are not solely related to external factors. One of the main problems is the population's dissatisfaction with the internal political situation, as well as some of the government's foreign policy actions – particularly its activities in Syria and Lebanon. Many Iranians view these actions more as a result of foreign policy ambitions than national interests.
At the same time, the population living in Iran's large cities is severely fatigued by strict economic restrictions and particularly by rigid religious norms concerning women's attire. In 2016, the death of a woman as a result of an incident related to women's clothing led to long-term and mass protests.
What recommendations can Russia offer Iran? It is believed that advice is more likely in the economic sphere. However, Russia cannot serve as an example regarding religious norms, as Russia is a Christian country, while Iran is a Muslim state. Nevertheless, Russian political circles believe that the Iranian leadership should gradually ease some strict restrictions to reduce social tension. However, there is no information to date that the Iranian leadership has followed these recommendations.
At the same time, it should be considered that among possible scenarios, there could be attempts to launch coordinated strikes against the Iranian leadership, the state administration system, and security forces. The goal is to synchronize internal uprisings and weaken the country".
The political scientist also spoke about Azerbaijanis in Southern Azerbaijan:
"Ethnic diversity is also a particular risk factor in Iran. The country is home primarily to Persians, Azerbaijanis living in Southern Azerbaijan, as well as Arabs and Kurds. In the event of a possible disintegration of Iran, serious geopolitical processes could occur among these ethnic groups.
For Azerbaijanis living in Southern Azerbaijan, these scenarios could create particularly complex choices: remaining part of Iran, establishing an independent state, uniting with the Republic of Azerbaijan, or forming a temporary political-diplomatic alliance with Azerbaijan. These are extremely complex and sensitive issues.
Given the possibility that events could develop very rapidly, it is advisable for Azerbaijan to be prepared for these processes and to consider various political and diplomatic scenarios in advance. If Iran maintains its current situation, disintegrates, or if internal conflicts deepen, Azerbaijan may be forced to adopt a more active stance on the issue of protecting its compatriots living in Southern Azerbaijan.
In this context, one point is clear: Russia will continue to support Iran's territorial integrity and statehood and will strive by all possible means to keep Iran intact".
