The Russia-Ukraine war has long lost its classic meaning of warfare. This conflict has now turned into a geopolitical laboratory where global powers test each other. Here, not only Ukraine bears the main brunt. European countries that trapped Russia are also experiencing serious turmoil. The confrontation between Russia and the West has placed a heavy burden on Europe. It is already openly felt that this burden is intensifying in economic, political, and security spheres, and Europe is struggling under it.
Frankly, European countries are struggling to bear the financial and energy costs of this war. At the same time, social discontent is growing. Political divisions are deepening. Populist forces are gaining strength by exploiting this opportunity. All of this indicates that the Ukrainian quagmire is drawing Europe into itself.
The course of events shows that Russia has not been left alone in this process. Although Moscow is under sanctions, Europe is not above sanctions. This situation changes the nature of the war. Ukraine ceases to be the West's project to weaken Russia. The irony of history is that this war is now turning into a crisis that tests the West itself.
The United States of America is closely observing this scenario. Washington does not want to take on Europe's problems. A clear coolness is felt in the US's attitude towards Ukraine. Financial aid is becoming a subject of dispute. The US provides arms supplies to its partners with a sense of obligation and almost like a beggar's share. Diplomatic rhetoric is also changing. This indicates that the US is trying to shift the burden of Ukraine onto Europe.
Even Donald Trump does not hide this position. He openly states that Europe must decide its own destiny. This idea cannot be considered a coincidence. It is also felt that this is an expression of America's new foreign policy philosophy. The US no longer considers Europe a priority. For Washington, the main targets are in other geographies.
China, the Pacific Ocean, the Arctic, and the Middle East are moving into a more important position. Europe, meanwhile, is falling into the background. Trump's stance on Greenland also proves this. The US wants to gain access to the Arctic. This region holds decisive importance in terms of future energy and transport routes.
The Venezuela issue has now moved to the background for Washington. The US has temporarily frozen risks in Latin America. Instead, it is focusing on more strategic areas.
China and Russia are observing this process from the sidelines, as if watching a comedy. Before they can analyze the US's actions, Trump creates a new game on another front.
In this regard, China and Russia also maintain a silent but cautious stance on the Iran issue. This also indicates the formation of a new balance of power.
The Iran crisis could be a more decisive test for the global system. This crisis is more dangerous than Ukraine. Because there is a risk of a major war here. The US wants to pressure Iran, and a plan for complete control over Tehran is being established. This plan also envisages redesigning the Middle East.
Europe, entangled in problems in Ukraine, is concerned about this policy. Because Europe has energy and trade relations with Iran. Although they do not openly state it, European countries desire stability in Iran. War could bring new waves of refugees and an energy crisis to Europe. For this reason, a serious disagreement is emerging between Europe and the US.
This disagreement automatically creates fragmentation within NATO. The members of the Alliance are not in the same position. One side supports the US, while the other supports Europe.
This also weakens NATO. Trump's attitude towards NATO further deepens this weakness. He views the alliance as a burden. The US does not want to share its security with others. This approach calls NATO's future into question.
All these processes lead to the disintegration of the global system. Old alliances are losing their power. New centers of power are emerging. The world is moving towards a new political map.
These changes also affect the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is moving into a more strategic position in this new phase. The geopolitical weight of the region is increasing.
Especially the South Azerbaijan factor is becoming relevant. Relations between Baku and Tabriz are gaining new meaning. In the new world order, this line can play an important role. Because the processes in the region intersect with the interests of great powers. Azerbaijan is in a key position at this intersection.
Thus, at a time when Russia and Europe are bogged down in Ukraine, and NATO is shaken in Iran, the South Caucasus gains new opportunities.
The road extending from Baku to Tabriz is no longer a dream. This road is becoming part of a new geopolitical reality.
Elnur AMIROV
