Today, due to the ongoing protests and calls for regime change, the world's attention is focused on Iran. It is reported that hundreds of people have been killed and thousands arrested. Azerbaijan is closely monitoring these developments, as more than half of the country's population consists of Azerbaijanis.
Therefore, how these events will unfold and their impact on our compatriots and the security of the region are noteworthy points.
In a statement to Modern.az, political scientist Zardusht Alizadeh stated that the main reason for the severe economic situation in Iran is the sanctions imposed by the United States of America against this country over the past forty-five years:
"As a result of the world's strongest military, political, and economic sanctions, the Iranian economy has weakened, inevitably creating serious socio-economic problems. The second important reason is the flaws in the economic policy of the Iranian government. These flaws are openly voiced, discussed, and reform paths are proposed. However, conservative forces hinder the implementation of these reforms.
US President Donald Trump is currently facing the threat of impeachment. Such situations have been observed before in American politics: when a president faces the threat of impeachment, large-scale military operations abroad are resorted to.
For example, during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Bill Clinton began bombing Yugoslavia and expanded the war to avoid impeachment. As a result, he escaped impeachment. Today, Donald Trump is also on the verge of impeachment. To save himself, he slandered Maduro and had him kidnapped."
He also explained the reasons fueling the protests in Iran.
"Currently, the economic crisis in Iran is deepening: the rial is rapidly losing value, and the dollar is appreciating. Small business owners and artisans, in particular, are protesting. Yet, small business owners are considered one of the main social pillars of the regime.
In this situation, the question arises: 'Where is Iran heading?' Great powers do not desire the existence of multinational, strong states. This is because such states possess financial, economic, scientific, and industrial potential. The US, UK, and other power centers do not want large states that could rival them to emerge.
Their goal is the fragmentation of large states into numerous weak, small ethnic entities. In such a case, these communities lack scientific and economic development potential. From this perspective, the fragmentation of the 90-million-strong, multinational Iranian state would be desirable for the US and Europe. A rival regime would be eliminated. Therefore, they constantly try to support and fuel ethnic movements."
The political scientist emphasized that the situation of Azerbaijanis in Iran is good, and they are represented in the country's leadership.
"The religious leader is Azerbaijani, the country's president is Azerbaijani. In power structures – the Prosecutor's Office, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the army – Azerbaijanis hold important positions. The vast majority of Azerbaijanis consider Iran their national state and homeland. Would a sane person want their state and homeland to be fragmented? Unlikely."
Zardusht Alizadeh believes that Azerbaijanis in Iran do not have a language problem either.
"As for the language issue, in Hamadan, Tabriz, Zanjan, and Urmia, people speak Azerbaijani in daily life. There are television programs, TV channels, and books in Azerbaijani. It is true that there are no general education schools in the mother tongue. However, this also partly depends on the initiative of the population. There have been no attempts to open private schools. If there were, it would be possible. Nevertheless, some forces artificially exaggerate language and cultural issues, trying to fuel contradictions and pit peoples against each other. They forget that the history of the US is only 250 years, while Iran's is 2500 years. Iran is an ancient and established state. It is unlikely that this state will be subjected to fragmentation.”
Security expert Ilham Ismayil noted that the outcome of the events in Iran resulting in regime change could be largely positively assessed:
“It is extremely difficult to predict in advance how the events in Iran will unfold. This is because the country has an ideological, theocratic structure, and its society is not homogeneous. We are talking about a system that has existed for 46 years, based on Islamic ideology. There are serious divisions within this system.
Starting from 1999, societal protests in Iran have gradually intensified. The current protests, however, are distinguished by their severity compared to previous ones. Here, the discussion is no longer about mere reforms, but about the change of the regime itself.
The influence of external forces – particularly the US and Israel – is also present in these processes. They support the process through various forms – ideological, political, and other means. A change of regime in Iran, meaning the formation of a normal secular structure, would be a positive development for the South Caucasus as a whole, and primarily for Azerbaijan. This is because Iran has attempted to export its Islamic Revolution to other Islamic countries.
For Azerbaijan, too, attempts have been made repeatedly in this direction: intelligence networks have been established, efforts have been made to recruit people with the aim of establishing a 'Karima state,' and even terrorist acts have been resorted to. From this perspective, the outcome of the events in Iran resulting in regime change can be largely positively assessed."
The expert emphasized that even if the regime does not change, it will no longer possess its former strength:
"A weakened Iranian regime will not pose a serious threat to the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan. Of course, the most desirable option is a change of regime and the establishment of a normal, secular state structure. This also holds significant importance for our compatriots in Southern Azerbaijan. Azerbaijanis there no longer merely demand certain steps, but rather a change of regime, the establishment, and guarantee of their rights. This is not an ordinary demand, but a matter of restoring fundamental rights,” the expert noted.
