Yesterday, a rally consisting of conservatives was held in Iran by the regime. It is said that the majority of participants in the rally were forced, while some participated voluntarily. In addition, the Iranian leadership shared that the situation was brought under control.
Starting from the 2000s, serious protest actions have been carried out in Iran every 2-3 years. And each of these protests has been suppressed.
At this point, it raises the question of whether the Iranian regime has "escaped" or not.
“What is happening in Iran is already a state crisis”
Former diplomat Nasib Nasibli told Modern.az that the recent rallies organized by the authorities are related to the regime's self-preservation instinct:
“The authorities' last step was interesting from the perspective of protecting the regime. All resources were mobilized. Some people participated in the actions by force, while others participated voluntarily. Those who consciously participated in the rallies protested both Reza Pahlavi's rise to power and foreign interventions. On the other hand, the cutting off of internet and communication means makes it difficult for the protest movement to deepen. When connections are cut, the movement weakens. The protests arose spontaneously, and there is no organization directing them. Therefore, some evaluate the rallies of regime supporters as a weakening of the protests. However, it is still early; the picture will become clearer in a few days.”
According to him, in the last 20 years, protests in Iran have always been suppressed only through repression:
“However, the problems have not been solved. In 2020, a women's movement took place. Today, women in Iran can walk with their heads uncovered, but this has not been legalized. Unlike previous stages, the current situation should now be assessed as a state crisis. The disintegration of state attributes is a very serious issue.”
Nasib Nasibli does not rule out a possible US military intervention either:
“The US intervention in Venezuela, the arrest of Maduro, and last year's strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities by the US and Israel are evident. Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is one of the main priorities in the Trump administration's doctrine. The 25 percent customs duty imposed on countries trading with Iran is also effectively a pressure mechanism equivalent to military intervention. If neighboring countries and other states cease economic relations with Iran, it is not difficult to imagine how severe the consequences will be.”
“Irreversible processes have already begun in Iran”
According to political commentator Elkhan Shahinoglu, the recent events in Iran fundamentally differ from previous waves of protests and have entered an irreversible stage:
“Certainly, protests have occurred in Iran at various times since the 2000s. However, the current protests fundamentally differ from previous ones. This time, almost all segments of society have joined the process. In particular, the demands of shop owners and small entrepreneurs regarding inflation and price increases have become the main driving force of the protests. Conservative circles, in turn, tried to demonstrate strength by organizing marches. However, these steps have not weakened the wave of protests. If the protests have subsided, why is the internet still cut off? Why is the police firing at protesters? The number of dead and wounded is increasing. This leads not to the cessation of protests, but to their further deepening. In my opinion, the protests will continue.”
According to the political commentator, the conservative regime can temporarily suppress the protests by force of arms, but after that, governing the country will be more difficult:
“This process was initiated by shop owners precisely as a protest against high inflation. Prices are rising, people are going bankrupt. Even if the protests are suppressed, will the problem be solved? Iran is under heavy sanctions. Unless foreign policy changes, the situation will not change either. Sanctions will continue, and this will deal a serious blow to the economy. In the coming months, it will become clearer how far the processes will go. Iran will either embark on the path of democratization, or the possibility of the country's disintegration will come to the fore. Because approximately 60 percent of the country's population consists of non-Persian nationalities, and there are different interests at play.”
Touching upon the US factor, the political scientist notes that Washington faces a difficult choice:
“If the US intervenes, the regime could mobilize society against a foreign enemy. On the other hand, if strikes are carried out, the collapse of the regime could accelerate. Donald Trump faces two choices. Whether strikes are carried out or not, the regime has already entered a stage of collapse. The 12-day war showed that conservatives do not have the ability to mobilize society in the long term. Shortly thereafter, political protests resumed. Trump has already openly stated that if people are killed, Iran's military centers will be targeted. Apparently, he is closely monitoring the grave situation in Iran and will make a decisive decision after a certain period.”
