“As Donald Trump intensifies his threats to use force against Iran, the notion that a US-Iran war is imminent gains strength. However, disagreements prevail within the White House between those advocating for military intervention against Iran and strategists predicting the problems that would arise”.
Political analyst Aqshin Karimov stated this in an interview with Modern.az.
He noted that within Iran, there are also hesitations between preparing for military confrontation with the US and engaging in negotiations with Washington. However, at this juncture, Iran prioritizes agreements with the US:
“Firstly, in a possible war scenario, Iran will not have the opportunity to maneuver advantageously due to its weakened geopolitical positions. Iran could respond to any US attack by striking Israel, as well as US military bases and other targets in the region. However, the 'axis of resistance,' which ideologically complements Iran's armed response and provides additional power support to Tehran, has been neutralized. This represents a limitation of the multifaceted vector characterizing Iran's strategy.
Secondly, the geopolitical unfolding of the US objective may be related to Iraq, as Iran still holds a strong hand in Iraq. Nevertheless, the US demands that the Iraqi authorities wage a reliable and open struggle against Iranian proxies. Iran, however, is wary of involving the Shia movements under its control in Iraq in potential conflict risks, as this could be considered a trap for Tehran.
Thirdly, Iran's passage through a sensitive period, including facing a wave of foreign attack before the consequences of the protest actions gripping the country have cooled, will create intra-elite problems for Tehran. This can primarily be assessed against the backdrop of disagreements within Iran between those favoring negotiations with the US and those strengthening ties with Russia. In this regard, the perspective of global power centers on the protests in Iran may also aim to intervene in and direct the calculations within the Iranian elite. On the other hand, preparations for the post-Seyyed Ali Khamenei era in Iran are creating difficulties for the regime.
Fourthly, there are probabilities of the Iranian economy being burdened with new sanctions, which could push the situation towards a more catastrophic direction”.
The political analyst believes that Iran is now maneuvering to transition out of these difficulties, and the spiritual elite in Iran, led by Seyyed Ali Khamenei, firmly adheres to the ideological base. It is characteristic for Iranian ideologues and strategists to find coherence between the language of resistance against foreign intervention and narratives to guide the domestic audience:
“From the US perspective, the risks that attacks against Iran could create are being analyzed. Donald Trump is largely utilizing the transitional period between the aftermath of nationwide strikes in Iran and the potential application of military force. This period shapes the US's ability to prepare a new plan against Iran.
On the other hand, the US calculates that a military attack against Iran could harden the resolve of the regime's still large support base within the country. At the very least, large-scale support actions for the regime as a counter to the protests are a point the White House considers. This creates obstacles for the US to deliver a comprehensive destructive blow against Iran. For the US, initiating a phase of armed rebellion from within Iran against the regime, while keeping military threats in circulation, might be a more acceptable option. This stage is a moment when the US and Israel could benefit from the Kurdish and Baluch factors.
The factors listed provide both sides with pretexts to avoid war, but the most significant is the struggle to gain access to the 408 kilograms of uranium enriched by Iran for nuclear weapons. In this struggle, it is unclear what specific strategic narrative the US, Russia, Israel, and China possess. However, the nuclear factor influences the intensity and pace of the struggle. Due to these influences, a meeting between US and Iranian officials is predictable, even though Trump is trying to reject this program”, the political analyst said.
