Large-scale protests that have taken place in Iran over the past two weeks have plunged the country into a deep political and social crisis. According to official data, more than 2,000 people have died during the unrest, while human rights defenders report that the number of fatalities is significantly higher. Analysts assess these processes as the most serious internal upheaval Iran has faced since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
International reactions have also intensified since the first days of the protests. The US administration has issued open threats against Tehran. Former President Donald Trump stated a few days ago that Iran could face military strikes if weapons were used against the protesters.
Although the international community approaches the events from various perspectives, the stance adopted by Arab states draws particular attention. Saudi Arabia, through official channels, has assured Tehran that its territory and airspace will not be used for possible military operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to sources close to the Kingdom's government and military circles, Riyadh has sent a direct message to Iran, explicitly stating that it will not participate in any attack.
A similar position has been demonstrated by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Both countries have announced that their territories and airspaces will not be permitted for use in possible military actions against Iran. Experts evaluate this approach as a cautious and pragmatic policy aimed at preventing further escalation of tensions in the region.
Modern.az-a açıqlamasında Milli Məclisin Azərbaycan-İran parlamentlərarası İşçi Qrupunun üzvü Ceyhun Məmmədov Ərəb ölkələrinin bu yanaşmasının arxasında duran səbəbləri belə izah edib:
“Today, there are serious disagreements between Iran and Arab countries. Relations between most Arab countries and Iran are not good. The main reason for Arab countries making this decision stems from their serious concerns. Because the destabilization of Iran will create problems for the entire region. That is, it will change the political architecture of the region and further increase tensions. The main concern is that any change in Iran will affect the entire Middle East. At the same time, Iran has many proxy forces and terrorist organizations. These organizations will not remain silent and will create additional threats for the region.”
Relations between Arab countries and Iran remain one of the most complex and long-standing geopolitical confrontations in the Middle East. These relations are shaped not only by diplomatic statements but also against the backdrop of regional conflicts, security concerns, sectarian differences, and economic interests.
Deputy Jeyhun Mammadov comments on the main nuances of the current level of relations as follows: “At the root of this issue is that Iran continuously interfered in the internal affairs of Arab countries. Iran sought to export the Islamic Revolution, its unique religious ideology, to Arab countries. For example, today we have the example of Lebanon. Many issues in Lebanon are in Iran's hands. At the same time, considering all other factors, there were disagreements and conflicts between them. This manifests itself clearly in most cases. Iran has constantly interfered in the internal affairs of Arab countries. It tried to export its religious model to Arab countries. This happened through the radical, terrorist groups created by Iran.”
Looking at the history of Arab-Iranian relations, tensions in relations further increased after the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. The new regime was perceived as a threat primarily by Sunni Arab monarchies, especially Saudi Arabia. Iran's support for “Hezbollah” in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia armed groups in Iraq, within the framework of its strategy called the “axis of resistance,” caused serious discontent in the Arab world.
Currently, the real fronts of the Iran–Arab confrontation have mainly formed in third countries:
Yemen: The war between the Saudi Arabia-led coalition and the Iran-backed Houthis is one of the bloodiest confrontations in the region.
Syria: Iran is one of the main pillars of the Bashar al-Assad regime, while several Arab countries have supported opposition forces.
Lebanon: “Hezbollah,” under Iran's influence, is virtually one of the main actors determining the country's political balance.
Iraq: Shia armed groups are actively operating in this country.
Member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council assess Iran's missile program and nuclear activities as a direct threat. Against the backdrop of pressures exerted with the support of the US and Israel, Arab countries are trying to curb Iran's regional ambitions.
However, the position of all Arab countries is not the same:
The UAE maintains economic ties despite political tensions with Iran, Qatar maintains pragmatic and balanced relations with Tehran, while Oman and Iraq act as mediators between the parties.
The restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, mediated by China, was assessed as the beginning of a new phase in the region. This step indicated that parties, which had been in hostile positions for many years, returned to direct dialogue. Analysts believe that this normalization does not signify full trust, but rather aims to prevent regional wars, maintain economic stability, and preserve the balance of influence among major powers.
According to experts, relations between Arab countries and Iran are neither in a phase of full reconciliation nor open warfare. The current situation is characterized more by a model of “controlled tension and forced dialogue.”
In a situation where Iran has not abandoned its regional policy and Arab countries have not overcome their security concerns, full normalization of relations does not seem realistic in the near future. Nevertheless, the parties now understand that direct confrontation comes at a high cost and are trying to keep diplomatic channels open.
