Today, Armenia is experiencing not only economic difficulties but also perhaps the most serious period of "demographic collapse" in its statehood history. Decades of occupation policy, unfounded territorial claims against neighboring countries, and the resulting regional isolation have turned into a cancer eating away at the country from within. Today, Armenia resembles a "nursing home" struggling to exceed 2 million people in real terms, despite official figures.
The exodus from Armenia has moved beyond individual cases and escalated to the level of a national disaster. Statistics from border services and international organizations show that the country permanently loses thousands of its citizens every year. The negative migration balance (the difference between those leaving and those arriving) over the last 5 years proves how alarming the situation is:
In 2020, 20,000 people left the country; in 2021, 15,000 people; in 2022, 22,000 people; in 2023, 25,000 people; in 2024, 17,000 people; and in 2025, approximately 9,000 people left the country. Furthermore, hundreds of thousands of Armenian migrants still work in Russia. Thus, in 5 years, 100,000 people have already permanently left the country.
The mass exodus of young people from the country (especially men aged 20-40) is rapidly aging Armenia. Currently, the average age in the country has reached a critical threshold. The population aged 65 and above constitutes approximately 20% of the total, and this figure increases annually. Gradually, the number of pensioners is starting to exceed the working population. This means the complete collapse of the state's social security system in the near future. Armenia is effectively transforming into an "elderly state" with no future, living only in its past.
On the other hand, birth rates in Armenia have fallen to an irrecoverable level. The reluctance of young people to stay in the country, the rising age of marriage, and families' distrust in the future have nullified demographic growth. According to experts, if the current trend continues, the Armenian people will not be able to regenerate themselves as an ethnic group in the coming decades.
Among the few young people remaining in the country, social degradation is rampant. Unemployment and hopelessness about the future are pushing young people away from education and science, into the criminal underworld. In Armenia, the "criminal subculture" (vorovskoy mir) has become a symbol of heroism among young people. Drug use, illegal arms trafficking, and the number of serious crimes among young people have increased by 30% in the last 3 years. This indicates the collapse of society's moral pillars.
At the root of all these disasters lies Armenia's misguided foreign policy pursued for decades. The occupation of Azerbaijani territories isolated Armenia from all major economic projects in the region. Being excluded from colossal projects like Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Kars stifled the economy; the allocation of a limited budget to arm the army instead of science and education plunged the people into misery; and finally, defeat and the collapse of the "Miatsum" delusion eradicated the sense of attachment to the homeland among young people.
While a "brain drain" continues from Armenia, their places are being filled by low-skilled migrants from India (32,000 people in 2024 alone). This completely changes Armenia's intellectual and ethnic profile.
The reality is that without making peace with its neighbors, it will be impossible to prevent this demographic collapse. Currently, Armenia appears not as a state, but as a "temporary settlement."
In this context, the country's only salvation lies in changing its constitution, accepting Azerbaijan's conditions, and renouncing nationalist ideology.
Modern Analysis and Research Group
