Although mass protests that began in Iran on December 28, 2025, covered the country's major cities within a few weeks, the active phase of the process is currently observed to have subsided. Official Tehran announced that approximately 3,000 people died during the events. Unofficial sources, however, claim that the losses are in the range of 12–20 thousand. The events continue to remain in the focus of the international community.
International Reaction and the US Position
Against the backdrop of the protests, US President Donald Trump made harsh statements directed at Iran. He stated that Washington would not hesitate to use force if weapons were used against protesters, and later softened his rhetoric by recalling that the execution sentences issued against more than 800 protesters had been suspended.
In parallel with this, the US is increasing its military presence in the direction of Iran. The deployment of additional military aviation, warships, and carrier groups to the region indicates that Washington's political statements are accompanied by a real show of force.
The World's Main Expectation from Iran
The main demand of Western countries, especially the US, regarding Iran is a complete renunciation of its nuclear program. Washington believes that Iran's nuclear potential is a primary source of risk for regional and global security. The US also desires the formation of a governance model in Iran that is closer to itself and open to cooperation with the West. This approach is compared to the political order that existed until the overthrow of the Iranian Shah's regime.
For Israel, the issue is more existential. Official Tel Aviv is interested in the change of the current regime, which does not recognize Iran as a state and declares its destruction an ideological goal. Israel also considers the formation of a friendly or at least non-hostile government in Iran to be vital for regional security.
Europe's Position: Between Pressure and Diplomacy
Although European countries do not display as harsh rhetoric as the US in the tension surrounding Iran, they stand in the same position as Washington regarding demands on Tehran. France, Great Britain, and Germany consider Iran's nuclear program a direct risk to European security and openly state that any step back on this issue is unacceptable.
France officially declares that Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons must be prevented “by any means.” Paris believes that Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for armed groups in the region further deepen instability in the Middle East.
Great Britain, on the other hand, approaches the issue primarily from a security perspective. London states that Iran's nuclear and missile programs pose a threat extending to Europe. British officials emphasize that Iran is “attempting to forcibly change the status quo” in the region and present Israel's security as one of Europe's priority issues.
Germany traditionally pursues a more cautious and diplomatic line. Berlin sees the restoration of the nuclear agreement as a possible path but also acknowledges that Iran has effectively failed to fulfill its obligations in recent years. Germany also openly criticizes human rights violations, execution sentences, and harsh interventions against protesters, considering these to be the main obstacles to normalizing relations with Tehran.
Overall, the position of the European Union is as follows: Iran must completely renounce its nuclear program, limit its ballistic missile capabilities, and reduce its military influence in the region. Otherwise, Europe is also prepared to strengthen new sanctions and a policy of political isolation in coordination with the US.
At the same time, European countries are wary that a sudden and uncontrolled change of power in Iran could create chaos in the region. For this reason, the main priority for Brussels, Paris, and Berlin is a managed transition or a change in the behavior of the existing government.
Position of Neighboring Countries: The Example of Turkey
Turkey approaches the events mainly neutrally and pragmatically. Although President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan does not have open sympathy for the mullah regime, there are close economic ties and common interests against the Kurdish factor between Ankara and Tehran.
It is precisely in this context that Turkish intelligence is reported to have transferred information regarding PJAK, a branch of the PKK active in Iran's western regions, to official Tehran. As a result, Iranian security structures were able to neutralize these threats. Ankara also carefully considers the risks that a possible change of power in Iran could create on the political map of the Near and Middle East.
Overall, countries surrounding Iran prefer to maintain rational relations amidst the existing tension.
Strained Relations with Pakistan
Iran–Pakistan relations are also currently unstable. Mutual air strikes and the presence of anti-Iranian forces in Pakistan further strain relations. Furthermore, the fact that Pakistan is predominantly Sunni and Iran is a Shia state highlights the sectarian factor as a source of tension. The only point of convergence is observed in the issue of combating Baloch separatism.
Iran's Regional Pillars Weaken
In recent years, Iran's regional influence mechanism, known as the “resistance belt,” has suffered serious blows. The change of power in Syria led to the withdrawal of Iranian forces from that country. This, in turn, resulted in the weakening of ties with the radical “Hezbollah” organization in Lebanon. It is reported that “Hezbollah's” combat potential, shaken by successive Israeli strikes, is no longer at its previous level.
On the other hand, Iran's influence in Iraq remains strong. After the defeat of ISIS, Shia armed groups have not been disarmed and retain significant influence over the country's political power. In this regard, Iraq remains Iran's main stronghold in the region. It is clearly perceived that the US and its allies are also interested in weakening these strongholds.
Main Demands and Possible Scenario
The main demand from Iran is that it renounce ballistic missile technologies, which demonstrated certain effectiveness during the 12-day war with Israel, lose its status as a regional military threat, and completely halt its nuclear program. Although the nuclear program suffered certain blows during the last war, Iran is reported to be trying to restore this potential.
At this stage, the US and the West expect a definitive choice from Tehran: either a complete renunciation of the nuclear program or the risk of military escalation. In analytical circles, the possibility of a change of power in Iran in the coming years is increasingly openly discussed. Existing internal dissatisfactions and external pressures keep this scenario on the agenda as a real possibility.
Modern Analysis and Research Group
