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The US will no longer leave the South Caucasus - ANALYSIS

The US will no longer leave the South Caucasus - ANALYSIS

Analytics

16 February 2026, 13:10

US Vice President J.D. Vance's visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia on February 9-11 was not only a historic event but also demonstrated Washington's deepening involvement in the region. We are currently witnessing a strategic restructuring in the South Caucasus: the US transitioning from a secondary player to a permanent partner in the South Caucasus and forming long-term geo-economic networks.

Vance's visit formalized this restructuring – the transition from discussions to the consolidation of the peace agreement reached between Azerbaijan and Armenia on August 8, 2025, through the mediation of Donald Trump, and to concrete integration projects.

At the same time, Washington is not merely expanding its presence in the South Caucasus but also changing the regional ecosystem for Russia and Iran over decades. Vance's visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan also demonstrates Washington's desire to reshape the geopolitical map of the region by challenging the presence of Russia and Iran through economic and infrastructure agreements. Unlike other geopolitical players, the US promises both countries a concrete cooperation model, investments, and technological support.

It should also be noted that Georgia was not on Vance's itinerary, but this does not mean that the republic has lost its value for the US. Washington is currently simply prioritizing issues that can be achieved more quickly and without undertaking related commitments. The main priority here is the "Trump Route," a transit axis passing through the South Caucasus. Through this route, the US expands its structural influence and gains control over transit flows from Central Asia to Europe, bypassing Russia and Iran.

Elnur ƏMİROV

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