Amidst Ukraine-Russia and US-Israel tensions globally, security risks are increasingly on the rise. For this very reason, various countries are now considering re-evaluating their policies regarding nuclear weapons. For instance, some time ago, Polish President Karol Navrocki gave a notable statement regarding his country's security strategy in an interview with "Polsat News" television channel. He stated that, in the current geopolitical situation, Poland should consider the possibility of possessing its own nuclear weapons in the long term.
According to the President, Poland is currently facing serious security risks. “The Republic of Poland is on the verge of armed conflict, and one of the main causes of these risks stems from Russia,” Navrocki emphasized.
Previously, when answering questions on one of the television channels, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan remained silent and gave no answer to the question, "Will Turkey produce nuclear weapons?"
It is interesting to consider whether Turkey is contemplating nuclear weapons production given its growing role at regional and international levels.
Cemal Zehir, a lecturer at Yıldız Technical University and an International Strategist, stated in his remarks to Modern.az that Turkey's decision regarding whether or not to possess nuclear weapons is not limited solely to a technical defense issue:
"This would be a historic decision with legal, diplomatic, and geostrategic consequences. Firstly, the current official position is clear. Turkey is a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and has declared that its activities in the nuclear field are for peaceful purposes. At the same time, our country is part of the International Atomic Energy Agency's mechanism. This means that any program related to nuclear weapons would have serious consequences from both a legal and political standpoint. Turkey's most concrete step in the nuclear field is the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant project, built within the framework of energy security. This facility aims to meet Turkey's growing energy demand and reduce its dependence on foreign sources. However, this plant does not have the character of a military program. Turkey is a NATO member and is under the Alliance's nuclear deterrence “umbrella.” This indirectly provides Turkey with a nuclear security guarantee. However, the international system has entered a more competitive and harsh phase in recent years. The US, Russia, and China are modernizing their nuclear arsenals. North Korea, meanwhile, has openly developed its nuclear capabilities. This scenario indicates that the global security architecture has become more fragile. The balance of power in the Middle East is also an important factor. Iran's nuclear program and Israel's unofficial nuclear potential affect the understanding of security. Against this backdrop, some strategists advocate for Turkey to at least develop a “nuclear threshold capacity” (nuclear threshold capacity-red). However, this is not an open weapons program, but rather means increasing high-tech infrastructure and scientific potential. Thus, the country can achieve strategic flexibility without violating its international obligations."
The expert also discussed the risks Turkey might face if a decision regarding nuclear weapons were made:
"The costs of an open nuclear weapons program are extremely high. On the other hand, we could face the following risks:
-Economic sanctions
-Diplomatic isolation
-Tensions with NATO
-Damage to the investment environment
Turkey's defense strategy in recent years has been built upon high-tech conventional deterrence. UAV/UCAV systems, air defense complexes, and investments in the defense industry have created a significant military advantage at the regional level. This establishes effective deterrence even without nuclear weapons.
Currently, there are three scenarios for Turkey:
-Current model: NATO + peaceful nuclear energy policy
-Nuclear threshold capability: Technological base exists, but no weapons
-Open nuclear weapons program: High-risk and costly option
In the current reality, Turkey is within the first scenario. From a strategic perspective, the second scenario—increasing technological potential—is a “grey zone” approach favored by many countries.
The answer to the question, “Is it necessary for Turkey to possess nuclear weapons?” depends on the following factors:
-The future of NATO
-Iran's nuclear status
-US-Turkey security relations
-Possible open and firm stance in Israel's nuclear policy
-Regional balance of power.
Under current conditions, legal and political costs are exceedingly high, and the existing security architecture does not necessitate it. However, if the international system becomes even more stringent, this discussion may gain broader attention in the coming years. The most rational path for Turkey is to enhance its expertise in peaceful nuclear technologies and maintain strategic flexibility."
