US-Iran relations are becoming more acute with each passing day. Despite the meeting held between the US and Iran in Oman on February 6, harsh statements are being made by the US against Iran. It is even stated that Iran will be crushed if there is no agreement.
What is happening in Iran is important for the region, including Azerbaijan. This is because millions of our compatriots live there.
It is interesting to know what our compatriots think about the latest developments. How do they follow the process?
Sadiq Isabayli, a member of the Board of Directors of the National Liberation Front of Southern Azerbaijan (CAMAC), stated that several important points can be discussed here:
“The discussion concerns Southern Azerbaijan's attitude towards the socio-political processes currently taking place in the country called Iran. The current situation is quite tense and uncertain. The increasing military rhetoric in the region, the harsh statements by the US, and its concentration of naval forces around Iran have caused serious concern in society. People are closely monitoring the situation, considering the possibility of a real war.
The expectation is that the Iranian regime will not back down. Although the US side intends to force the regime to accept its terms by increasing pressure, the current political behavior indicates that Tehran has no intention of retreating. According to the regime's own calculations, the US will continue its pressures but will not resort to direct military intervention. Nevertheless, within society, a war scenario is being discussed as a more realistic option”.
According to S. Isabayli, people in Southern Azerbaijan are also in a waiting position:
“However, this is not a passive waiting. According to information received from various cities, preparations are underway for a possible military situation. Families are accumulating necessary food supplies, acquiring medicines and medical supplies, and making alternative preparations against the possibility of power outages. This is more a precautionary and rational approach than a psychology of fear.
At the same time, the main topic of discussion is: if the regime collapses or a large-scale war breaks out, how should Southern Azerbaijan act? Observations and surveys conducted show that the main opinion among the population is that in such a situation, Southern Azerbaijan should decide its own fate. That is, in the Iran-US confrontation, Azerbaijani Turks should not take sides but should prioritize their national interests.
Recent processes indicate that in Southern Azerbaijan, thoughtful preparations are being made both in terms of individual security and future political prospects. The main direction of discussion is the issue of national self-determination”.
S. Isabayli also spoke about the student protests in Tehran:
“Regarding the student protests in Tehran, these actions were mainly initiated by various political currents, especially republican-oriented groups and partly by supporters of Reza Pahlavi. On the opposing side, forces loyal to the regime, particularly Basij detachments, were mobilized, and confrontations occurred. According to reports, pressure calls were made to the families of students participating in the protests. The participation of individuals of Turkic origin in the protests is not excluded. However, this does not mean that Southern Azerbaijani students joined this process in an organized and large-scale manner. In general, neither the regime nor the political forces presenting themselves as alternatives raise the national rights of Southern Azerbaijan.
For years, Southern Azerbaijan has been raising issues of education in the mother tongue, cultural rights, and political representation. However, these demands are systematically rejected, national activists are arrested, some face serious charges, and there are even those facing the death penalty. Under these circumstances, it is impossible for Southern Azerbaijan to trust the current regime.
On the other hand, the attitude of some political forces presenting themselves as alternatives towards Azerbaijani Turks is not unambiguous. They approach the issue not from the perspective of national rights, but within the framework of a unified citizenship, do not consider demands such as education in the mother tongue as a priority, and evaluate the demands of the National Liberation Movement as the country's disintegration.
In such a scenario, the main approach in Southern Azerbaijan is this: if a serious political collapse or foreign military intervention occurs within the country, Azerbaijani Turks should act towards their national self-determination. National mobilization, the protection of historical territories, and the determination of the future by their own will are discussed as key priorities.
Consequently, Southern Azerbaijan neither stands with the regime nor is inclined to unconditionally join the calls of alternative forces. The position is clear: processes are carefully monitored, analyzed, and a political line is determined based on national interests. There is a waiting position, but this is not passivity – it is a stage of strategic preparation in accordance with the conditions”.
