The ideas expressed by US President Donald Trump in his address to Congress indicate an increased risk of war.
Against the backdrop of the speech and military activity, Washington's possible strike scenario against Iran has begun to appear more realistic.
Trump's speech contains three main messages: the argument of Iran's internal repressions and regional threat – the claim of 32,000 protesters killed and a missile program targeting Europe. In his political rhetoric, he prefers a tone of ultimatum over compromise. Trump demands a clear stance on the nuclear weapons issue and cites the fact that the phrase “We do not want nuclear weapons” has not been heard from Tehran.
The US leader states that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons by declaring “I will never allow it.” This is not for diplomatic maneuvering, but rather to prepare public opinion for a possible military step.
On the other hand, there are also signals of military readiness. The deployment of aviation forces in the region, the dispatch of over 150 aircraft to US bases in Europe and the Middle East, and the flight of 12 F-22 Raptor fighters from RAF Lakenheath base in the UK towards Israel indicate military power.
F-22s are primarily used for air superiority and first-wave strikes. This can be assessed as preparation for an offensive scenario, not a defensive one.
The concentration of one-third of US warships in the Middle East also signals a threat. This could aim both to prevent possible retaliatory strikes from Iran and to create a platform for a large-scale operation in the region.
The lack of progress even after the second round of talks between the US and Iran in Oman indicates that Washington's demands are stricter than those of previous administrations, requiring the full restriction of Iran's enrichment program and the weakening of its regional influence mechanisms, while Tehran perceives these conditions as an interference in its sovereignty.
Thus, the diplomatic window is narrowing.
Possible scenarios include a “precise and short-term” strike on Iran's nuclear facilities and missile infrastructure, a longer-term operation coordinated with Israel, and a strategy of psychological pressure and coercion.
The current rhetoric and military activity indicate that Washington keeps a real military option against Iran on the table. Against the backdrop of the inconclusive talks in Oman and hardening demands, the perception of US “strike resolve” is strengthening.
However, it is difficult to say that a definitive decision has been made at this stage. The US typically applies a model of first maximum pressure, then a final warning, and only after that a military step in such cases.
Modern Analysis and Research Group
