Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan has sent a letter to Brussels. In the letter addressed to Brussels, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs requested assistance to prevent possible Russian interference and disinformation. Official Yerevan has asked the European Union (EU) to send a “hybrid rapid reaction team” to the country ahead of the parliamentary elections to be held in June.
The EU, in turn, plans to strengthen Armenia's “democratic resilience.” If the new mission is approved, the main focus will be on protecting the electoral process and a possible referendum. The decision is expected to be made in March. It is an interesting nuance to consider by what methods and means Russia intends to interfere in the elections in Armenia.
Political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu stated in his comments to Modern.az that Russian state structures are specifically preparing for the parliamentary elections in Armenia:
“The main task given by the Kremlin to these structures is to weaken Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his party before the elections. For this purpose, the Kremlin has decided to support the radical opposition in Armenia and the oligarchic groups opposing Pashinyan. Furthermore, the Kremlin is trying to form a strong coalition against Pashinyan. This is because the Kremlin believes that opposition parties and opposition oligarchs will not be able to win against Nikol Pashinyan's party individually. It is no coincidence that, indeed, coalition talks among various parties in Armenia have intensified.”
The political scientist emphasized that the second direction in which the Kremlin has opened a front against Nikol Pashinyan and his government is the organization of cyberattacks:
“Russia has sufficient financial and technological resources to organize these attacks. Therefore, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan has requested support from Brussels against cyberattacks directed from Russia. As the date for parliamentary elections and a referendum on the adoption of a new Constitution in Armenia approaches, the scale of cyberattacks from Russia will increase. It is not easy for the European Union to protect Armenia from Russian cyberattacks. The Armenian government also understands this. Nevertheless, by requesting support from Brussels, the Armenian government is sending a message to the international community that Russia intends to disrupt the parliamentary elections in Armenia and the referendum on the adoption of a new Constitution. Although no elections will be held in Azerbaijan in the coming years, Russia is also organizing various cyberattacks against our country. Reports from the temporary commission of the Milli Majlis against foreign interference and hybrid threats also prove this.”
Political scientist Natig Miri noted that the main issue is preventing disinformation that may be spread in the information space and media outlets:
“False compromising materials about Pashinyan and his team, as well as various disinformation related to the 2020 44-day war and the anti-terror operations carried out on September 19-20, 2023, may be disseminated to the media. This will aim to confuse public opinion and trigger potential hatred against the government. These are just one side of the issue. This is because Russia is an institutionalized country in the field of disinformation. Russia skillfully uses this policy in the Western world, especially in the European Union space. A clear example can be seen in the elections held in Moldova. During the elections in Moldova, it was the rapid response teams sent by the European Union that prevented disinformation and provocations. As soon as information is spread, it is immediately investigated, and the truth is immediately disclosed to the public. In short, disinformation and lies are not allowed to take root. Since false information is a very decisive factor in public opinion, Russia uses this sensitive point against any country it wishes. No one doubts that Russia will take the same steps in Armenia. Russia is undertaking serious preparatory work to compensate for its defeat in Moldova. Therefore, the Armenian government has appealed to the European Union. I believe that the EU will respond positively to the decision. The activities of the rapid response team from the European Union proved effective in Moldova. That is, this is a tested, effectively operating group. In addition to using various technologies, even artificial intelligence, it is possible that special PR groups related to Nikol Pashinyan's government may also operate. Support groups for the government's propaganda can also be added. I consider this very positive.”
The political scientist stated that, in addition to all this, winning Armenian public opinion is also very important:
“Because if proper propaganda is not carried out among the people, preventing the spread of disinformation will not be very effective. In this regard, many positive events have occurred, particularly the work done by the Pashinyan government, the peace it brought to Armenia, the prevention of deaths among Armenian youth, certain economic developments, including the opening of the way for investments into the country, the documents signed between the US and Armenia, and the opening of borders with Turkey. Such positive events will continue to occur leading up to the elections. Even trade with Azerbaijan has been restored. All of this must be conveyed to the Armenian public, and very serious propaganda must be conducted so that public opinion is entirely in favor of Nikol Pashinyan's government and the peace it has brought to Armenia. Only in this case can the rapid response team coming from Europe be effective in preventing disinformation and lies.”
