As Armenia prepares for the fateful parliamentary elections to be held on June 7, the country's political agenda was shaken by unexpected news. A video message was released stating that Anna Hakobyan, who has walked alongside Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for many years in political and personal life and is considered the country's first lady, has decided to divorce. This event is not a simple separation but is evaluated as a precisely calculated political maneuver targeting Pashinyan's reputation.
Because the dissemination of such news three months before the elections cannot be coincidental. For Pashinyan, the image of a family man has always been a core component of his "man of the people" persona. Hakobyan's move aims to dismantle Pashinyan's strongest line of defense from within. It can be stated with certainty that this divorce is a direct blow to Pashinyan's moral and leadership authority in the eyes of his electorate.
The most striking aspect concerns Anna Hakobyan's new political choice. According to reports, Hakobyan now supports Samvel Karapetyan, the head of the "Tashir" group, who has earned the title of billionaire in Russia, is currently under investigation, and is seen as a real candidate for the Armenian premiership.
The increasing influence of Karapetyan, a Russian citizen, in Armenian politics reaches a new level with Hakobyan's move to his camp. Hakobyan is expected to officially announce her support for Karapetyan in the coming days, which will have the effect of a "stab in the back" for Pashinyan.
Hakobyan's move is not her first coldness towards Pashinyan. Historical facts recall that during Pashinyan's political activity, especially during difficult times when he was imprisoned, Anna Hakobyan did not demonstrate the expected moral support, leaving him in political solitude. What is happening today appears to be the logical culmination of those years and cold relations.
Anna Hakobyan and Nikol Pashinyan lived for many years in a civil marriage without official registration. During this period, Hakobyan witnessed all the dark aspects of Pashinyan's political career, decisions made behind closed doors, and his personal weaknesses.
There is a high probability that Hakobyan will disclose serious compromising information about Pashinyan in the coming days. The revelation of long-held secrets is the most dangerous weapon that can influence voters' opinions. In this context, Anna Hakobyan's discussion of the risk of criminal liability as the head of the "My Step" foundation should be regarded as political manipulation.
With this, she neutralizes all of Nikol Pashinyan's moves.
While rare, instances of heads of state's spouses opposing them or damaging their reputation have historically yielded devastating consequences:
The separation of South African leader Nelson Mandela and Winnie Mandela, and Winnie's scandals, briefly affected Mandela's image, but he managed to retain the people's affection.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, however, divorced Cécilia Ciganer-Albéniz in 2007, just 5 months after Sarkozy was elected president. This was a first in French history and severely shook Sarkozy's image as a "leader in control of everything".
Anna Hakobyan's situation, however, is more acute, as she is not merely divorcing but also siding with a rival candidate.
Despite all these internal upheavals, Hakobyan's betrayal, and the Karapetyan factor, it would be incorrect to say that Pashinyan will emerge defeated from the elections.
The European Union considers Pashinyan "indispensable" to maintain Armenia's Western integration trajectory. The political and diplomatic support, which also gains certain political leverage for the White House amidst the Azerbaijan-Armenia normalization, is Pashinyan's main lifeline in this storm.
Although Pashinyan is projected to emerge from the June 7 elections with significant reputational losses, as a "wounded" leader, it is predicted that he will be able to retain power thanks to Western support and administrative resources.
Anna Hakobyan's move will remain in Armenia's political history as the "greatest family betrayal". However, Pashinyan possesses extensive maneuvering capabilities to navigate this personal and political crisis.
Elnur AMIROV
