The third decade of the 21st century is going down in history as a period of new geopolitical confrontations on a global scale. The modern system of international relations has moved away from stability and entered a phase where new power balances are being formed. One of the most important links in this process is the large-scale war that began between Russia and Ukraine. It is known worldwide that this war has long surpassed the status of a military confrontation between two states. In reality, this is a major geopolitical battleground where the strategic interests of global powers clash.
The large-scale war between Russia and Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. On that day, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation on television, declaring a “special military operation.” Immediately thereafter, the Russian army launched a large-scale offensive operation into Ukrainian territory. The attack was carried out simultaneously from several directions. From the north, an advance towards Kyiv began via Belarusian territory. In the east, battles intensified in the Donbas region. From the south, an attack was launched from the direction of the Crimean peninsula. The events indicated that the operation was the result of a pre-planned extensive military strategy.
Russia was the side that struck the first blow in the war. Moscow believed that this operation would be completed in a short time. The Russian leadership claimed that Ukraine would soon surrender. According to various analytical data, the Kremlin calculated that Kyiv would be captured within a few days. Some plans even anticipated the overthrow of the Ukrainian government within a week. However, the course of events showed that these calculations were entirely incorrect.
Ukraine showed much greater resistance than expected. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not leave the country and remained in the capital, Kyiv, leading the resistance. This decision created great motivation within Ukrainian society. The Ukrainian army and population were rapidly mobilized. Western countries also immediately began to provide political and military support to Ukraine. The United States allocated billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine. The European Union imposed extensive economic sanctions against Russia. NATO countries began sending various weapon systems to the Ukrainian army.
Thus, on the Ukrainian front, two major geopolitical blocs effectively confronted each other. On one side stood Russia. On the other side were the United States and European countries, together with Ukraine. Although NATO did not formally join the war directly, it significantly influenced the process. The war became part of the strategic struggle of major powers.
As the confrontation prolonged, both sides suffered heavy losses. Many Ukrainian cities were destroyed. Energy infrastructure was damaged. Millions of people were forced to leave their homes. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers perished. In fact, the biggest victim of this war is the Ukrainian people. Because the destroyed cities are located on Ukrainian territory. The ruined economy is Ukraine's economy. The majority of those who died are Ukrainian citizens. On the other hand, Russian soldiers are also becoming victims of this war.
There is no clear winner in this war. Russia failed to achieve the rapid victory it planned. Ukraine, in turn, faced severe destruction and losses. Many analysts state that Russia has fallen into the Ukrainian quagmire. Moscow cannot extricate itself from this quagmire. Russia is under economic sanctions. Ukraine, meanwhile, has become heavily dependent on Western aid.
The outcome of this war holds great significance for the global geopolitical balance. If Ukraine loses, it will be considered a serious political defeat for the US and Europe. This is because the West has invested significant political and military resources in Ukraine.
On the other hand, if Russia loses, it will not only be a defeat for Moscow. It will also be a serious blow to Russia's geopolitical partners. Among these partners is China. Iran is also an important member of that geopolitical bloc. North Korea is also among the countries supporting Russia. India, while pursuing a balanced policy, is aware that Russia's weakening could affect Asian politics.
Before the Ukraine war ended, the world faced a new and more dangerous confrontation. The Middle East once again became one of the main centers of global politics. Tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran began to escalate rapidly.
The roots of this confrontation go back decades. In 1979, the Islamic Revolution took place in Iran. After this revolution, Iran regarded Israel as an enemy state. Israel, in turn, considered Iran's nuclear program a serious risk to its security. This confrontation continued for many years in the form of proxy wars.
Recent events, however, further escalated the situation. An open military confrontation began between the US and Israel, and Iran. This war is now in its eighth day. The fact is that the region has entered a phase of open military confrontation.
Iran is showing serious resistance. This resistance is compared by many analysts to that of Ukraine. Iran is also not fighting alone. There are major geopolitical powers standing behind Iran. China and Russia are at the forefront of these powers.
For China, Iran is a vitally important partner in terms of energy and trade. Iran is also an important part of China's “Belt and Road” initiative. Therefore, the weakening of Iran would create a serious strategic problem for Beijing. Russia also cooperates with Iran militarily and economically. For this reason, a complete defeat of Iran is not desirable for that bloc.
On the other hand, the US and Israel are trying to weaken Iran's regional influence. One of the main objectives of this war is to limit Iran's geopolitical capabilities. Thus, the region is becoming a battleground for major powers.
The biggest victims of this war will also be ordinary people. The Iranian people will experience the severe consequences of the war. The Mullah regime, however, continues its political course.
The initial picture creates an interesting geopolitical parallel. In Ukraine, Russia is struggling in a quagmire. In Iran, the US and Israel may face a similar risk. It is as if roles are changing on the geopolitical stage. In this scenario, Iran, in a certain sense, resembles Ukraine's role. The US and Israel, like Russia, may have to endure the fate of a long-term war.
If Russia wins in Ukraine, it will be a serious strategic blow to the West. If the US and Israel win in Iran, it will be a serious geopolitical defeat for China and Russia. Therefore, a retreat by the parties does not seem easy. The opposing forces are mobilizing all their capabilities to avoid defeat.
Because defeat in these wars means a very serious loss. Such a defeat is considered unacceptable for major powers. This, in turn, increases the risk of escalation. Experts believe that such a situation also increases the nuclear threat. This is because strategic defeat compels major states to take radical steps.
This scenario represents a new and dangerous geopolitical outlook for the world. Human fate, bloodshed, and prohibitions hold no importance for major powers. For the US, this process signifies a struggle for global leadership. For Israel, this war is a matter of regional security. For China, this confrontation is a key link in energy and trade routes. For Russia, these events are part of the ongoing geopolitical struggle with the West.
Against the backdrop of all these calculations, one truth remains unchanged. Any war is an enemy of humanity and undesirable.
History has repeatedly shown that the worst peace is better than war. Today, the world is compelled to remember that very truth again. Because the prolongation of wars promises greater dangers for humanity.
Both the Ukraine war and the confrontations in the Middle East indicate that the world has entered a new and uncertain geopolitical phase. In this phase, the concept of a winner becomes relative. At the end of wars, all of humanity loses, while only a very small segment gains.
Elnur ƏMİROV
