Iran's Assembly of Experts announced a new Supreme Leader. As a result of the vote, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei became the third Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Although the election of the Supreme Leader created hope for certain changes among some internal Iranian forces, the US and Israel do not accept his election. Even US President Donald Trump stated that the new Supreme Leader could only be elected with his approval. This raises certain questions.
That is, will the new leader be able to make changes, or will he also soon be killed by US and Israeli forces?
The head of the Middle East Research Center Sadraddin Soltan commented on the issue to Modern.az.
According to him, certain changes are expected from Mojtaba Khamenei:
“The election of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader means certain changes for many. It is believed that Mojtaba Khamenei will pursue a reformist line in Iran, engaging in talks with the West and taking steps to prevent war in the region. However, Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public or spoken at any major events until now; therefore, no one has heard his voice to date. Mojtaba Khamenei's activities confirm that he represents the conservative line, more specifically, the IRGC.
Although his name has not been mentioned in any official state institution, he played a key role in the formation and strengthening of Basij, considered a paramilitary organization of the IRGC. That is, he was the unofficial leader of Basij. On the other hand, after his father Ali Khamenei underwent surgery in 2015, there were reports that Mojtaba Khamenei was unofficially governing the country. In short, it was said that he had been governing the country for the past 10-11 years.
At the same time, Mojtaba Khamenei has been presented as an heir for almost 20 years, meaning he has played a certain role, both officially and unofficially, in shaping the country's domestic and foreign policy.
Regarding the steps Mojtaba Khamenei will take in foreign policy, it is said that he is under the influence of Iran's former foreign minister, Ali Akbar Velayati, the Supreme Leader's advisor on international affairs. Ali Akbar Velayati, in turn, is a proponent of the conservative line. He was even one of the Iranian officials who spoke most harshly against the Zangezur corridor. He is also among the proponents of the conservative line on regional issues.
Despite all this, proxy forces supported by Iran in the region, such as "Hezbollah" and Hamas, have either been eliminated or weakened. I believe that Mojtaba has little power to pursue Iran's traditional, i.e., inherited from his father, active, aggressive, and expansionist policy in the region”.
S. Soltan also spoke about how the relations between Mojtaba Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian will develop:
“Masoud Pezeshkian becoming President occurred with the blessing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. From this perspective, Mojtaba Khamenei is also aware of this process. There have been no serious contradictions between Pezeshkian and Khamenei. Even at a government meeting held last autumn, Khamenei expressed his gratitude to Pezeshkian for his work. Therefore, in the near future, the likelihood of a conflicting clash between Mojtaba Khamenei and Masoud Pezeshkian during the course of the war is low. Both Mojtaba Khamenei and Masoud Pezeshkian are working for the survival of the current government, the Islamic Republic, and its emergence from the current war. If it were a peaceful period, its sides would be clear. However, Masoud Pezeshkian does not possess as much power as the Supreme Leader, or the power backing him. Therefore, Pezeshkian will be forced to carry out Mojtaba Khamenei's instructions, or he will resign”.
Regarding the possibility of the new leader also being eliminated by the US and Israel, our interviewee stated the following:
“If the US treats the Iranian government as it did Hamas and "Hezbollah", then yes, they can also eliminate Mojtaba Khamenei. Following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, they also eliminated other leaders of the organization. Similarly, in "Hezbollah", they eliminated the new forces that came to power after Hassan Nasrallah. They have kept the current leader because he is a useless leader.
I reiterate that if Mojtaba Khamenei continues his father's hardline policy, the probability of his elimination is high. Because Trump had declared that Iran's next Supreme Leader would be appointed with his participation. However, Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment did not occur with the participation of the US or Trump. Therefore, the threat still remains. As long as the US and Israel conduct military operations in Iran, this threat persists”.
It should be noted that Mojtaba Khamenei is the second son of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on February 28. Ali Khamenei served as Iran's second Supreme Leader between 1989 and 2026.
