On March 9, 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei was elected as Iran's new Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts.
However, Khamenei's election seriously irritated the US and Israel. Israel issued a fatwa for his death, and US President Donald Trump said that he would not be able to live "peacefully".
All this raises questions such as what Mojtaba Khamenei's future fate will be, as well as whom the US wants to bring to power within Iran.
In a statement to Modern.az, Elnur Mustafayev, head of department at the Academic Ziya Bunyadov Institute of Oriental Studies of ANAS, stated that in the near future, the US electing a new supreme leader for Iran instead of Mojtaba Khamenei does not seem to be an option:
“First of all, it should be noted that the situation in Iran and the surrounding region is very complex. It is very difficult to make precise predictions. The US electing a new Supreme Leader for Iran does not seem to be an option in the near future. Because there is no one within Iran who could be an alternative to Mojtaba Khamenei, who could replace him. If such a step were possible, cooperation with reformers would be considered a more optimal option for the US and Israel. Because the reformist wing is open to negotiations and dialogue. However, it is not possible for conservatives to enter into negotiations with the US-Israel coalition. Because their approach to the issue is harsher and more radical. Mojtaba Khamenei will not make any concessions in resolving relations with the US and Israel within the framework of dialogue. I believe that the situation will become even more tense. There is also a danger of the conflict's scale expanding further.”
E. Mustafayev emphasized that the war could last longer:
“According to experts, the war could take a long time. Iran has sufficient human resources and ammunition reserves. This could, to some extent, create grounds for the war to prolong. Recent events also show that Iran is capable of attacking neighboring states. It is reported that one of the civilian buildings was also hit. This also indicates the danger of the war expanding. I believe that the US and Israeli sides should withdraw. If they prolong the war and continue aerial attacks, the scale of the war could expand further. This is a dangerous situation for the region. Many experts liken Iran to a powder keg. The explosion of a powder keg is also an undesirable situation for the region.”
The orientalist also spoke about the potential impacts of the war on the South Caucasus:
“The war could lead to both economic and political problems. Azerbaijan, as a leading state in the South Caucasus, is ready for all scenarios. All issues have been taken into consideration. I do not anticipate any military threat. However, economically, it could lead to certain problems, particularly price increases and issues with the restriction of certain products.”
