Britain's influential "Financial Times" (FT) newspaper has published its annual forecast covering global political and economic processes for 2026.
According to Modern.az, the publication notes that seven out of the 20 predictions made for the past year did not materialize, which is considered the weakest result since the forecasts began.
FT has once again brought the main risks and expectations for 2026 into focus.
1. Ukraine and Russia war – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will not be forced to abandon Donbas within the framework of a possible peace agreement with Russia. The newspaper writes that such a step is extremely risky for Kyiv from a constitutional, military, and political perspective. Ukraine's capitulation could only be possible in the event of a complete and unexpected collapse of the defense line. The idea of creating a demilitarized zone around Donbas is considered unacceptable for both Ukraine and Russia.
2. Donald Trump and tariff policy – US President Donald Trump will back down from imposing new customs duties on semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. The reasons cited include losses in stock markets, retaliatory measures from China and other countries, as well as rising consumer prices in the US. The newspaper notes that these factors have weakened Trump's tough tariff campaign.
3. US Congress and midterm elections – Republicans may lose their majority in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections to be held in November 2026. In this scenario, Democrats will gain the opportunity to initiate investigations against the Trump administration. The newspaper does not rule out the start of impeachment proceedings, but it is emphasized that Trump will mobilize all his political resources to prevent this.
4. Political situation in France – There will be no snap parliamentary elections in France in 2026. Political parties have focused their attention on the presidential elections scheduled for spring 2027. The newspaper recalls that the parliamentary elections held in 2024 weakened Emmanuel Macron's coalition, and repeat elections are not attractive for the parties.
5. Germany and the far-right – Chancellor Friedrich Merz could face a serious political challenge if he prohibits cooperation between the Christian Democratic Union and the far-right “Alternative for Germany” party. Particularly, the potential successes of the AfD in the upcoming five regional elections could further increase this pressure.
6. Japanese government – According to the newspaper's forecast, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will remain in office in 2026. The Financial Times notes that despite rising inflation and interest rates, Takaichi still enjoys public and political support.
7. Internal risks in Great Britain – FT writes that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the Labour Party may face difficulties in the local elections to be held in May. Weak results could intensify discontent within the party and lead to changes in the upper echelons of power.
8. Saudi Arabia–Israel relations – Saudi Arabia will not normalize relations with Israel in 2026. Riyadh demands a concrete and clear roadmap leading to the creation of a Palestinian state. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects this demand, and according to FT, even if there is a change in government, no significant change in Israel's position is expected.
9. "Tesla" and the electric vehicle market – The newspaper reports that Elon Musk's Tesla company will not be able to regain its previous market share in the US, European Union, and Chinese markets. The expiration of federal tax credits for electric vehicles in the US, regulatory uncertainty in Europe, and increasing competition in China are weakening the company's position.
10. Central bank policies – The world's leading central banks will continue their policy of lowering interest rates. Only the Bank of Japan is cited as an exception.
11. Chinese yuan exchange rate – The newspaper predicts that due to a high trade surplus and signs of deflation in the economy, the Chinese yuan's exchange rate will not appreciate in 2026.
12. Gold market – The Financial Times expects the price of gold to exceed 5,000 dollars per ounce. The reasons cited include active purchases by central banks, budget deficits, geopolitical risks, and decreasing confidence in “fiat” currencies.
13. Artificial intelligence sector – FT believes that the market hype formed in the artificial intelligence sector could burst. Investors are already taking a more critical approach to technology giants, especially as Nvidia's positions are being questioned amidst Google's advancements and the decline in Meta's shares.
Thus, FT's forecast for 2026 indicates that political uncertainty and economic risks will continue globally, and sharp turns are possible in many areas.
