The dynamics observed in the global political system in recent months indicate that the world's attention is gradually shifting from conflict zones such as Ukraine, Syria, and Venezuela towards Iran. The new vector of tension that has emerged in the international relations system is precisely centered on this country.
From a geopolitical perspective, Iran is a key nodal point located at the intersection of the Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Gulf region. Its energy resources, transit routes, and military-strategic position transform it into a critical actor for global powers. The issue of Iran now occupies a central position in the policies of major players such as the USA, China, Russia, and the European Union.
Donald Trump's “Iran must be hit” rhetorical statements now represent an update to the US strategic security concept. Washington views Tehran's nuclear program, its proxy networks in the region, and its capabilities posing a threat to Israel as a national security problem.
Precisely for this reason, the US and its allies are restricting the activities of Iranian diplomatic missions. In some countries, protesters are taking down Iranian flags from embassies. This is known in classical diplomacy as a mechanism of political isolation.
Within Iran, the situation is becoming even more complicated. The election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president indicates the emergence of serious fissures within the system. Pezeshkian represents the reformist wing and openly presents an alternative stance to the hardline led by Ayatollah Khamenei. His statement “I am a Turk” is not merely a message of ethnic identity, but also an attempt to give new political content to Iran's multi-ethnic structure. This declaration has created significant political resonance in regions such as South Azerbaijan, Tabriz, and Ardabil.
Currently, two main centers of power exist within Iran. On one side, there is the theocratic elite supported by SEPAH, and on the other, there is the reformist bloc that desires the modernization of society. Pezeshkian represents the latter bloc, and this creates an institutional risk to Khamenei's authoritarian system. This situation is evaluated as a classic regime transformation scenario.
Against the backdrop of increasing tension in the region, Russia approaches the issue cautiously. For Moscow, Iran is a strategic partner in the Ukraine war. Iran's drone and missile technology is of vital importance to Russia. Therefore, the Kremlin is not interested in Tehran's destabilization. For Russia, the collapse of Iran would mean a shift in the balance of power in the South Caucasus and Central Asia in favor of the West.
China, on the other hand, views Iran as one of the main pillars of its energy security. For Beijing, Iran is not only a source of oil and gas but also one of the main hubs of the “Belt and Road” initiative. China assesses a US military intervention in Iran as a blow to global trade flows. For this reason, China supports the reduction of tension through diplomatic means.
The Ukraine war having reached a strategic stalemate has redirected the West's attention to other directions. Venezuela and Maduro have also receded into the background. Syria is now accepted as a geopolitical status quo. Iran, however, has become the most dangerous point in terms of nuclear risk, regional war, and the possibility of internal revolution.
What is currently happening in Iran is not merely assessed as an internal matter of one country. This is a process of restructuring the global balance of power. For the US, weakening Iran means ensuring Israel's security and strengthening its hegemony in the Middle East. For Russia, maintaining Iran means countering the West. For China, Iran is an economic artery.
Pezeshkian's open or covert struggle against Khamenei accelerates elite fragmentation within Iran. This is the most dangerous stage for the system. History shows that authoritarian regimes collapse precisely when the elite is divided.
In conclusion, it can be said that Iran is currently the main stress point at the center of global politics. Here, not only Iran's fate is being decided. The future of the Middle East, Israel's security, energy markets, and the global balance of power are being determined. The tension will either result in a controlled transformation or explode into a regional war. In both cases, Iran is already the main front of world politics. It will no longer be the Iran of before. One could even say goodbye to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Elnur ƏMİROV
