When assessing the impact of the war in the Middle East on the global economy, China is identified as one of the potential losers.
Modern.az reports that Bloomberg published information on this matter.
According to the information, oil emerges as the main channel of impact. Thus, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 13% to exceed $82, while WTI was around $72. A complete halt to oil supplies from Iran could further increase prices by approximately 20%. In the event of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, the price of a barrel of oil is expected to rise to $108.
Who will suffer?
The largest risk group includes major oil importers - China, the European Union, and India. In countries with weak foreign exchange reserves (Argentina, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Turkey), the risk of capital outflow and depreciation of national currencies increases. In the US, rising fuel prices could negatively impact consumers.
Who will benefit?
Oil-exporting countries - Russia, Canada, and Norway - may benefit from the current situation. Amid rising prices, increased demand from India and China for Russian oil could further strengthen Moscow's position.
Additional risk - Worsening US-China relations
Beijing sharply condemned Washington's actions, calling the “open assassination of a sovereign state leader and the implementation of regime change unacceptable.” Further escalation of tensions between the US and China risks disrupting the trade truce that has reassured investors.
