The military operations carried out by the US and Israel against Iran have caused serious fluctuations not only in the Middle East but also in the global economy and energy markets. While the war may create new strategic opportunities for some countries, it could lead to severe economic consequences for many states.
According to Modern.az, BBC reports that the current situation has created uncertainty, especially in energy markets. Disruptions to maritime transport around the Strait of Hormuz and rapidly rising oil prices are increasing costs for consumers and businesses worldwide. At the same time, the destabilization of the region has caused hundreds of thousands of people to leave their homes.
It is probable that Russia could gain certain geopolitical and economic advantages from this situation. According to experts, the war in the Middle East could divert a portion of US military resources from Ukraine. Furthermore, rising oil prices mean additional budget revenues for Russia. Analysts state that prices rising to the $120 level increase Moscow's earnings from energy exports and enable it to sell more oil to markets like China and India.
Although China is considered one of the countries not directly hit hard by the war, it may face indirect effects. Beijing imports approximately 12 percent of its oil from Iran and possesses certain reserves. However, problems arising in global trade routes and the increased cost of maritime transport could harm China's export sector, which is the main driving force of its economy. Additionally, some analysts believe that China could gain an opportunity to present itself diplomatically as a “stabilizing force” against the US.
It is predicted that the most affected by the war will be developing countries dependent on energy imports. Several states in Southeast Asia have already begun to implement economic restrictions. In Vietnam, diesel prices have increased by 60 percent since the war began. The Philippine government has shifted most public employees to a four-day work week. In Pakistan, restrictions have been imposed in many government agencies and limits placed on gasoline sales to conserve fuel reserves.
Experts also emphasize that the consequences of the war will not be limited to the energy market alone. Approximately 30 percent of the world's urea (fertilizer) supply is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. If a serious disruption occurs on this route, global food prices could increase and food security problems could arise in the coming months.
Thus, while the war around Iran creates political and economic opportunities for some countries, it poses serious risks and uncertainties for a large part of the world due to energy and trade shocks.
