According to the proposed amendment to the Tax Code, from 2026, the 2 qapik road tax (per liter) added to the cost of automobile gasoline, diesel fuel, and liquefied gas will become 7 qapik. It was also noted in the budget draft that AI-95 will not be produced in Azerbaijan next year.
How the aforementioned decision will affect Azerbaijan's gasoline market and whether it will lead to price increases is already a subject of discussion.
Regarding the issue, economist Eldəniz Əmirov, speaking to Modern.az, stated that in most countries, gasoline prices and oil prices are adequate and directly proportional:
"I believe that the non-production of AI-95 brand gasoline in Azerbaijan will not significantly affect the selling price of this type of gasoline. A large portion was already dependent on imports. Since the probability of oil prices increasing in the upcoming period is very low, and on the contrary, discussions are being held on its greater rate of decrease, we can say that there will be no increases in the price of the AI-95 brand gasoline we import. In most countries, gasoline prices and oil prices are adequate and directly proportional. That is, when oil prices rise, gasoline prices also rise; conversely, when oil becomes cheaper, gasoline also becomes cheaper. Oil prices are not predicted to increase next year, and therefore the probability of AI-95 brand gasoline prices increasing is very low".
Regarding the increase of the 2 qapik road tax (per liter) added to the cost of automobile gasoline, diesel fuel, and liquefied gas to 7 qapik, the economist said the following:
"This is a 250% increase. True, while this may not be a very large figure, it is a significant indicator in terms of percentage. I believe it is somewhat risky to say anything unequivocally about whether this factor will affect prices. A 5 qapik increase is possible. However, on the other hand, decreases in oil prices and a reduction in the cost of gasoline production could compensate for the 5 qapik increase in tax. In any case, since there is a possibility that gasoline prices will not increase next year, there is an opportunity for this. However, it is not possible to say anything concrete about how the decision will be made at this time. Since prices are regulated, meaning the economy does not regulate itself, it is not possible to express a concrete opinion on what decision the decision-makers will make".
