The war in Iran may not only have military but also economic implications for the states in the region. So, what could be the effects of the war on Azerbaijan's economy?
Modern.az reports that Vugar Bayramov, a member of the Milli Majlis, answered this question.
"The trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Iran in 2025 slightly changed compared to the previous year, reaching 644 million dollars. In 2024, this figure was 647 million dollars. Although the figures indicate that trade relations between the countries are not expressed by small indicators, the structure of the turnover creates a different impression. A significant part of the trade turnover is imports from Iran. In 2025, 624 million of the 644 million dollar turnover was formed by imports from Iran. This means that only 3 percent of the total trade turnover is Azerbaijan's exports to Iran. Azerbaijan's exports to Iran amounted to only 20 million dollars. This means that last year, we had a negative balance of 604 million dollars in trade with Iran," the deputy noted.
According to V. Bayramov, Azerbaijan has a negative trade balance with Iran over the years:
"This means that Iran gains more from trade relations with Azerbaijan. This, in turn, means that if technical difficulties in trade relations with Iran continue, it will not have any specific impact on Azerbaijan's exports. Statistical analyses over the years show that Iranian imports have been dominant in trade between the two countries. Iran's share in Azerbaijan's total exports is not even expressed in whole numbers. Exports bring currency into the country, while imports take currency out of the country. As for the impacts, this could manifest in a decrease in imports from Iran. Azerbaijan imports construction materials, agricultural products, as well as dried fruits, light industrial products, especially industrial products used in households, from Iran."
To be more specific from this aspect, how might the recent events in Iran affect Azerbaijan's consumer market?
V. Bayramov stated that if Iran's export capabilities are restricted for a longer period, difficulties may arise in importing a number of products manufactured in our southern neighbor.
"Thus, in 2025, Azerbaijan imported fresh or dried oranges (14.3 million dollars), potatoes (13.6 million dollars), edible salt, iodized products (11.8 million dollars), eggplants (9.4 million dollars), biscuits (8.8 million dollars), butter (8.7 million dollars), peppers, including fruits of the capsicum or pimenta species (8.3 million dollars), dates - fresh or dried (6.4 million dollars), onions (6.1 million dollars), carrots (5.7 million dollars), cabbage (4.5 million dollars), cheese (4.1 million dollars), kiwi (3.1 million dollars), and other food products from Iran.
In addition, the main burden in imports fell on construction and industrial products. During the mentioned period, Azerbaijan imported nitrogen (84.8 million dollars), argon (48.7 million dollars), marble granules, chippings and powder (20.1 million dollars), granules, chippings and powder of monumental and building stones (18.9 million dollars), natural barium sulfate (12.5 million dollars), white Portland cement (9.7 million dollars), hypochlorites, chlorites and hypobromites (6.9 million dollars), disodium carbonate (5.8 million dollars), and other non-food products from Iran.
As can be seen, industrial and construction products are imported from Iran in larger amounts compared to food products. Naturally, the prices of imported products are relatively low compared to other goods. In this regard, there is a need for faster diversification of imports, especially for food products.
Furthermore, if imports from Iran decrease, it will not have a significant impact on the balance of Azerbaijan's consumer market. Only 1.3 percent of Azerbaijan's foreign trade turnover accounts for Iran. In 2025, 2.6 percent of our annual imports were formed by Iran.
In addition to all this, there is a need to replace goods imported from Iran, especially food, by bringing them from alternative markets in a shorter time to prevent price increases. Naturally, this will also depend on the duration of the war. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of events in the region, the diversification of import markets for food products and the minimization of import dependence are further increasing in priority."
