Rising military tension in the Middle East, particularly around Iran, has increased risks in global financial and commodity markets. Strikes by the US and Israel on Iran, as well as Tehran's retaliatory actions, have not only heightened the risk of war in the region but also affected air travel and trade flows. In such circumstances, investors typically move away from risky instruments, preferring assets considered more reliable, especially gold.
Rovshan Amircanov, Deputy Chairman of the Azerbaijan Jewelers Association and economist, stated in a declaration to Modern.az that in the current situation, gold has once again come to the forefront as one of the market's primary safe-haven assets. According to the presented market indicators, the price of one ounce of gold in commodity markets currently ranges between 5,250–5,260 US dollars. In recent transactions, the price of spot gold has been observed to rise to approximately 5,277 US dollars/ounce.
According to him, this dynamic indicates that gold is once again approaching its previous record levels:
"In the Azerbaijani market, gold selling prices primarily differ based on fineness and the craftsmanship characteristics of the product. Currently, the price of 999.9 fineness gold ranges from 310–350 manats, 750 fineness gold from 260–300 manats, and 585 fineness gold from 200–240 manats. The prices are also influenced by the manufacturing characteristics of the product and additional processing costs. Regarding forecasts, in the event of further deepening military tension and continued escalation in the region, the probability of an additional increase in gold prices remains high. Based on the current trend, it is not excluded that the price of one ounce of gold could rise to the 5,600–6,000 US dollar range in the near term. From this perspective, gold is expected to remain in a high-price zone in the near future".
He noted that the main reason for gold's re-emergence as the market's primary safe-haven asset is the increase in geopolitical risks.
"In such periods, investors seek to keep capital in a safer position, which increases demand for gold. At the same time, the impact of Middle East tensions on energy prices also strengthens inflation risks. Consequently, gold is considered more attractive both as a safe haven and as a tool to protect against inflation. Alongside this, it should be noted that short-term fluctuations in the market are also possible. After an initial price increase, profit-taking, as well as certain pullbacks, may occur against the backdrop of a strengthening US dollar. However, the overall picture indicates that as geopolitical uncertainty continues, the probability of maintaining a high price level in the gold market is higher. Consequently, current geopolitical processes have once again transformed gold into one of the main indicators of global risks. A prolonged conflict and deepening uncertainty in the energy market could support gold remaining at high levels. Conversely, in the event of diplomatic de-escalation and the restoration of stability in the region, the possibility of a short-term market correction should also be considered".
