The escalation of war between the US-Israel and Iran in the Middle East is severely shaking the global energy market.
According to **Modern.az**, analysts warn that if the conflict prolongs and, especially, if shipments in the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for an extended period, the price of oil in the world market could rise to the 150 dollar threshold.
This scenario could create a situation close to the record prices recorded in 2008 and lead to a new wave of inflation in the global economy.
Currently, the biggest risk in the oil market is a decrease in supply. Approximately 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any long-term blockade or security issue on this route could create a serious shortage in the market. At the same time, some Gulf countries reducing production and problems in the logistics chain could accelerate price increases.
A rise in prices to 150 dollars will primarily deal a severe blow to countries dependent on oil imports. Specifically, **European Union countries, Turkey, India, Japan, and South Korea** are listed among the economies most affected by high energy prices. The increase in fuel and electricity prices in these countries will boost inflation, make industrial production more expensive, and could weaken economic growth.
China, as one of the world's largest energy importers, could also be significantly affected by high prices. Rising energy costs could increase production and logistics prices, creating a new wave of price increases in the global supply chain.
On the other hand, high oil prices mean a significant increase in revenue for energy-exporting countries. In this regard, countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Norway, Russia, and Azerbaijan could financially benefit from rising prices in the global market. Especially for countries where a large part of the state budget is formed from energy revenues, this situation could create additional income and fiscal opportunities.
However, some analysts warn that an excessive rise in prices could also pose a risk for oil-exporting countries in the long term. This is because very high energy prices could weaken global economic growth and consequently lead to a decrease in energy demand.
For the US, however, the situation is dual-natured. On one hand, as the country is a major oil producer, energy companies profit from high prices. On the other hand, rising fuel prices in the domestic market could increase inflation, creating economic and political pressure.
According to experts, the course of the war and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will determine the main direction of the oil market in the coming months. If tensions do not decrease, the probability increases that energy prices in the world market will remain high and significantly impact the global economy.
