A war between the US and Israel with Iran, which would cause a sharp increase in oil and gas prices, would harm the economies of Europe and Asia more than that of the US.
Modern.az reports that the Financial Times newspaper writes about this.
It is noted that since the beginning of the war, the price of Brent crude oil has increased by approximately 30%, while the price of European gas has increased by two-thirds. It is believed that if high prices persist, this will lead to increased inflation, decreased purchasing power, and slowed economic growth in many countries.
According to an analysis of 15 countries, the consulting firm Oxford Economics concluded that Italy would be the most affected in Europe, with inflation there exceeding forecasts by more than 1 percentage point by the end of the year.
In Germany and the United Kingdom, which are highly dependent on gas imports, inflation is projected to increase by more than 0.5 percentage points. Meanwhile, in the US, it is projected not to increase by more than 0.2 percentage points.
In addition to European countries, the war will also harm major oil and gas importers from the Gulf – India, South Korea, and China. FT notes that China imports approximately 70-75% of its oil consumption. On the other hand, it could increase its imports from Russia.
According to the Financial Times, countries like Norway and Canada could benefit from this. These are exporters who do not face the same risks as Middle Eastern suppliers.
The US, which is at war with Iran, has become the world's largest oil and gas producer as a result of the "shale revolution". James Knightley from ING bank says that although the conflict in the Middle East would harm them less than other countries, they are "not immune to damage".
David Aikman, head of the British National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank, says: "Everyone will be worse off because energy, a key factor in production, is becoming more expensive. However, this will affect different countries unequally".
