On September 10, dozens of unmanned aerial vehicles entered Polish airspace amidst the Russian army's attack on Ukraine. The Polish Ministry of Defense announced that at least 19 objects had entered the country's territory, and some of them were shot down. According to official information, seven drones and one missile wreckage were discovered.
The Polish government activated Article 4 of NATO, initiating urgent consultations with allies. Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the incident a “serious provocation” and stated that his country had come very close to an armed conflict.
For the first time on NATO territory, allied countries directly targeted and destroyed enemy drones. The operation involved Polish F-16 fighters, Dutch F-35 aircraft, Italian AWACS aircraft, and German “Patriot” air defense systems.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the incident “Russia's irresponsible step,” while French President Emmanuel Macron described it as “completely unacceptable.” The head of European Union diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, accused Moscow, stating that “the entry of drones into European airspace was deliberate.” The US and NATO leadership demonstrated solidarity with Poland, emphasizing that the situation was under control.
According to observers, Russia's move is not accidental. The Kremlin is testing how flexibly NATO will react and to what extent it will take action. Because although there have been instances of Russian drones and missiles falling into the airspace of border countries until now, it had not been on this scale and in such a targeted manner.
Thus, Moscow is testing both political fragmentation within NATO and the practical application of the alliance's collective defense principles. The Polish government's activation of NATO's Article 4 and demand for urgent consultations indicates that the issue was not considered an “ordinary border incident.” With this, Moscow is sending a signal to “be prepared for provocations.”
Is there a possibility of invasion?
Currently, a large-scale invasion plan by Russia against Poland does not seem realistic, as resources are primarily concentrated in Ukraine. However, in the long term, especially if the war in Ukraine is frozen, the Kremlin has the potential to increase pressure in the Baltic region. In this regard, Poland's strategic “Suwalki Corridor” is considered the most sensitive point for NATO.
Thus, the Kremlin tested NATO's pulse through Poland. The alliance's unified reaction showed that the test resulted in failure. However, Moscow's move will further increase military-political tension in Europe in the coming period. It is inevitable that the borders between NATO and Russia will be “tested more frequently.”
Elnur Amirov
