Starting from the 2000s, serious protest actions have been carried out in Iran every 2-3 years. And each of these protests has been suppressed. However, the current protests are distinguished from the previous ones. Experts believe that what is happening this time is a "state crisis".
Foreign interventions in Iran are expected. US leader Donald Trump has openly stated this.
Modern.az has learned the positions of the members of the Milli Majlis's Azerbaijan-Iran Inter-Parliamentary Working Group regarding the events in Iran.
Jeyhun Mammadov, a member of the Milli Majlis's Azerbaijan-Iran Inter-Parliamentary Working Group, stated in his interview with our website that the situation in Iran is quite complex and severe:
“Such events have occurred in previous periods as well. However, the events happening this time give the impression of a more complex and severe process than before. Therefore, I believe it is very difficult to make predictions at present. One option is that the regime will not be shaken and will retain power. That is, they will suppress these rallies by force. We clearly see this from the recent steps taken. The second option is for America to attack and strike Iran. This could lead to the collapse of the regime. However, there is also a possibility that the people will unite around the government as a result of a US attack, and this is a very high probability. For this reason, I think everything will be fully known in a day or two. That is, it is possible that the Iranian regime might overcome the current events this time too. In the absence of external intervention, it is possible to prevent these riots, even at the cost of killing the population. We must not forget that Iran has a very strong system, an army, and security forces. In other words, overthrowing Iran is not an easy matter. The occurrence of these events itself poses a threat to the region.”
The MP emphasized that the development of events in this manner could create problems for Azerbaijan:
“At the current moment, many peoples living in Iran are organizing. I have concerns regarding the organization of Azerbaijanis there: what will happen here if there is a change? There is the issue of Iran's fragmentation and the creation of a new state. Currently, there are two powerful states in the region: Iran and Turkey. After Iran, the probabilities of Turkey also becoming a target are very high, and this should concern us to some extent.
Therefore, we wish for this process to pass without error, and in the event of change, it is naturally very important for Azerbaijanis here, that is, to be organized and at the same time not to fall behind the processes. Iran has many proxy, organized forces. In other words, it will be very difficult to establish stability in Iran. The old system will wage a serious struggle to regain power. In that sense, those various forces will go to different countries and continue their activities there.
I believe that the sensitive, dangerous issue will be Iran's proxy forces and the networks it has created. There are certain forces in Azerbaijan that also have no small sympathy for Iran. Iran has forces in Iraq, Libya, and to a lesser extent, Syria. How they will be managed and what tasks they will perform is a matter of serious concern.”
Jeyhun Mammadov, who is also a member of the Milli Majlis's Science and Education Committee, spoke about the impact of the events on Azerbaijani students:
“What is happening will also affect our students in Iran. There are several points here. Investigations are underway regarding some of them. Just as there will be certain problems with their return here, their stay in Iran will also create problems. Naturally, our state will take the appropriate necessary steps. However, the number of students and our citizens living there is not small. What steps they will take, or what work they will engage in if they come to Azerbaijan, is also very important. In other words, it is not possible to completely eliminate the current ideology in Iran. Because this is a tradition. The issue here is quite complex.”
Another member of the Milli Majlis's Azerbaijan-Iran Inter-Parliamentary Working Group, Hikmat Babaoglu, noted that the events in Iran have become possible as a result of the country's political, ideological, and economic realities:
"In a changing and renewing world, at a historical stage where a new world order is forming, the necessity for change has arisen in Iran, as in all countries. Change and reforms historically occur in two forms: top-down initiatives and bottom-up initiatives. States and politicians who can correctly grasp the pulse of the world and the changing rhythm of the new era reconcile the interests of their people and country, make rational decisions, and manage to turn complex historical processes in favor of national interests. What is happening in Iran cannot be viewed merely as socio-economic events. This is also a religious, ideological issue. Iran is destined for renewal."
The MP assessed the regional impacts of a potential external intervention in Iran as follows:
"Iran is located in such a geography that any external intervention will not only lead to changes in Iran. Iran, both geographically, in its internal ethnic structure, and from an ideological and religious perspective, has played a unique role in establishing ideological relations among states in the region for many years. The answer to the question of whether the collapse of this system, even if negative, will create certain complications is, unfortunately, yes. A kind of half-century harmony will be disrupted. This can occur in physical-geographical, ethno-cultural, and socio-economic contexts. External interventions are possible. Because we have witnessed the 12-day war. As for direct US intervention in the region, it seems to me that it will depend on the behavior of the existing political dynamics in Iran. The US never intervenes in a country without securing its social base. It seems to me that the US has perhaps already, for many years, formed a social base in Iran that will support its position. After fully completing this process, it can intervene in various ways. Our wish, however, is that this intervention be carried out not by military means, but by soft methods, so that it is in favor of the Iranian people."
