Dependence, or strategic flexibility?
Real choices for Azerbaijan
3rd article
As the US-China confrontation grows, the main risk arises not for great powers, but for regional powers. Because others write the rules of this race, and the costs are often paid by those caught in the middle. For countries like Azerbaijan, the question is simple: to remain merely a raw material supplier in this game, or to become a strategically maneuvering player?
How are regional powers squeezed?
The first mechanism is energy reduction. Great powers secure the energy needed for artificial intelligence infrastructure under the guise of “long-term contracts,” “green transition,” and “security.” As a result, regional powers sell their resources but cannot enter the value chain derived from energy.
The second mechanism is technological dependence. The chips, cloud platforms, and software ecosystems required for artificial intelligence are under the control of the US and China. Regional states acquire the technology but do not control it.
The third mechanism is normative pressure. Decisions are made under the names of “ethical artificial intelligence,” “carbon footprint,” and “security standards”; those who write these standards adapt, while others remain outside the market.
Is intelligent maneuvering possible?
It is possible, but it requires cold, calculated realism, not romanticism.
1) Ascent through energy, not energy transformation.
Selling energy is not enough. Energy must be converted into computing power. Selling gas, oil, and electricity as raw materials is no longer sufficient. Instead, the following are needed:
– establishing data centers using this energy;
– cheap and stable electricity zones for industry;
– operating and training artificial intelligence models;
– creating cloud services, high-performance computing (HPC), and AI platforms.
In other words, energy should not be an exported product, but a tool that creates value domestically.
2) Nuclear and gas: not old energy, but strategic pillars.
Renewable energy is important for regional powers, but it is not sufficient for artificial intelligence infrastructure. The main requirement here is stability. Precisely for this reason, in energy planning:
gas – a transitional and balancing pillar,
atomic energy – should be considered a source of continuous stability for computing infrastructure.
This approach is based not on ideological choices, but on a 24/7 load schedule and uninterrupted energy supply.
3) Connecting to interfaces, not blocks
Choosing one side is risky. The right path is to become an interface country:
– integrating into Western markets with energy flows;
– ensuring East-West transit with logistics corridors;
– remaining neutral in data flows.
This is not a “a little for everyone” policy, but a policy of being essential to everyone.
4) State control + market flexibility
Artificial intelligence infrastructure cannot be fully privatized. However, stifling state control is also risky. The optimal model:
– The state establishes the framework for energy and security;
– The market, in turn, ensures innovation and expansion.
Specific choices for Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan's advantage lies not in resource abundance, but in its geographical and energy balance, in my opinion. The real choices are these:
– Using gas not only for export but also as a price advantage for local artificial intelligence and data centers;
– Keeping the nuclear topic on the table as a technical scenario, not an ideological taboo;
– Becoming a regional data-energy hub (Caucasus–Caspian–Central Asia intersection);
– Moving AI beyond “startup romanticism” and linking it to industry and public services.
Consequently, regional powers in this war will either be energy colonies or computing platforms. There is no intermediate option. In the age of artificial intelligence, sovereignty is measured not by a flag, but by a power switch and a server room.
The state's long-term strategy in the context of Azerbaijan
In his recent interview, President Ilham Aliyev clearly articulated Azerbaijan's strategic intentions in the fields of artificial intelligence and digital technologies. He stated that Azerbaijan intends to become a regional artificial intelligence and information technology hub, and work is already underway to develop the necessary infrastructure and human capital for this. In this regard, the country is carrying out joint projects with partners to establish data centers and cybersecurity infrastructure, and pays special attention to specialist training. Azerbaijan aims to strengthen its national human resources in the AI field. This strategic position indicates strong will at the state level and emphasizes the continuation of technological cooperation with the US.
This approach is fully consistent with the maneuvering logic I mentioned for regional powers. Specifically:
– Artificial intelligence is not merely a technological choice, but a strategic national priority;
– Strengthening national infrastructure is crucial for realizing the potential of artificial intelligence;
– in this process, the formation of human capital stands at the center not only of educational policy, but also of economic and security policy.
Azerbaijan's goal is to assume the role of a transport-energy-digital center in the AI and IT fields in the region. This means not only remaining an energy exporter but also becoming a strategic actor that combines energy with computing power. According to the President, investments in this area, expert training, and foreign cooperation will provide the country with both flexibility in technological fragmentation and geopolitical maneuvering capability.
From this perspective, the way forward for Azerbaijan is not merely selling resources, but transforming resources into a value chain, linking energy potential to digital potential. Such a strategy demonstrates a different model for regional players: when an independent energy policy and a national AI strategy are built on the same line, the country can increase its influence in both regional and international competition.
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