In recent years, competition among major powers in the system of international relations has become more open and severe. Particularly, the geopolitical confrontation between the US and Russia manifests itself in various regions simultaneously. This confrontation emerges not only in the military and diplomatic spheres but also in the form of a struggle for influence in the internal political processes of various countries. The Venezuelan crisis in Latin America, the escalating tension around Iran in the Middle East, and the political processes occurring in the post-Soviet space constitute different fronts of this competition.
The arrest of Venezuelan leader Maduro, a close ally of Russia in Latin America, along with his wife, by the US at the beginning of the first month of this year, created a serious resonance. It was precisely with this step by the US that Russia's influence here was reduced to zero. Russia was deprived of the opportunity to use the country with the world's largest gas reserves as leverage against the US. Now, the US also wants to bring Cuba, another Russian sphere of influence in Latin America, into its sphere of influence. Trump has already made several statements to the press regarding this. If this also happens, Russia will no longer have any sphere of influence on the American continent.
In the processes unfolding in this direction, the US's superiority is clearly evident. The US has also strengthened its policy in the Middle East. For instance, as early as October 2024, the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad ended Russia's dominance in Syria, one of its strongest "fortresses" in the region. Thus, Russia's efforts here also came to naught. And finally, let's consider the war in Iran. Here, the war aims to weaken Iran, one of Russia's biggest allies, in military, political, and economic directions.
The fact that processes in Iran are unfolding according to the US's wishes effectively means that Russia's hands are tied. This brings losses to Russia from political, military, and economic perspectives. It is true that Iran is still resisting. However, this resistance can be broken at any moment, which is precisely what Russia fears most at present. This is because Iran is also an extremely important transit route for Russia's access to the Middle East. Thus, the "fall" of Iran would mean Russia's absence from the Middle East as well. Currently, the US appears to be leading in these processes too. It is for this reason that Russia is actively supporting Iran. According to US sources, Russia is providing coordinates to Iran for striking American warships and bases in the Middle East. In this regard, it is necessary to recall Trump's phone conversation with Putin a few days ago. Unnamed sources regarding those talks stated that the US might ease sanctions on Russia. This would only be possible if Russia ceased its support for Iran in the war. Whether Russia will agree to this is doubtful, as it would set it back in Iran as well. Looking at the overall situation, it is clear that Russia is already losing in both Latin America and the Middle East.
It is precisely this defeat that Russia is attempting to compensate for in the South Caucasus. In this regard, the parliamentary elections to be held in Armenia are considered a significant event for the geopolitical future of the region. These elections are not merely an internal political struggle for power but are also evaluated as a serious political decision regarding which geopolitical direction the country will choose.
Armenia's Geopolitical Choice Dilemma
After the political changes that occurred in 2018, Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in Armenia, attempted to create a certain balance in the country's foreign policy. However, in recent years, his government's rapprochement with Western structures has been more openly observed. The expansion of political dialogue with the European Union, the strengthening of cooperation with Western institutions, and the deployment of a European observation mission in the region are considered key indicators of this direction.
For Western countries, the change in Armenia's political course is considered important in terms of weakening Russia's sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space. For this reason, the European Union and the US view the Pashinyan government's retention of power more positively and politically support this course. On the other hand, for Russia, Armenia is one of its traditional strategic partners in the South Caucasus. Russia's influence in Armenia's economic, energy, and security systems is still quite strong. The Russian military base located in the country and economic ties enable Moscow to maintain its positions in this country.
In this context, the activation of figures supported by political and business circles close to Russia in political processes draws attention. Russian businessman of Armenian origin Samvel Karapetyan and political groups considered close to him are presented as forces representing a political line that prioritizes the protection of Moscow's interests in the region.
Internal Political Environment and Election Dynamics
The outcome of elections in Armenia cannot be explained solely by geopolitical factors. The socio-political situation within the country also plays a decisive role in this process.
After the 44-day war, an environment of political polarization and distrust persisted in Armenian society for a long time. While opposition forces accuse the Pashinyan government of making serious mistakes in security policy, government supporters present him as a leader who accepts new realities and strives to extricate the country from international isolation.
Another important factor is the economic situation and social problems. Armenia's economy is largely dependent on foreign markets and diaspora capital. The potential weakening of economic ties with Russia creates serious risks for several business groups. At the same time, the increase in Western financial institutions and investment programs encourages another political direction. For this reason, Armenian elections can be evaluated not only as an ideological and political clash but also as a clash of economic interests.
Influence Mechanisms of Major Powers
The US and the European Union primarily influence political processes in Armenia through diplomatic and financial means. Through democracy, institutional reforms, and economic support programs, Western countries seek to change Yerevan's foreign policy course.
Russia, on the other hand, primarily uses energy, economic, and security mechanisms. A significant portion of Armenia's energy sector is under the control of Russian companies. Furthermore, the country's security architecture has been built on close ties with Moscow for many years.
For this reason, a complete change in Armenia's political course does not seem possible in the short term. A more realistic scenario is considered to be the continuation of a balanced policy.
Possible Election Outcomes
The current political landscape indicates that the political team led by Pashinyan possesses a certain advantage in terms of control over the state apparatus and organizational resources. The political support and diplomatic relations of Western countries are also considered among the factors strengthening his position.
Alongside this, pro-Russian political forces also have a certain social base in society. Particularly, business structures economically tied to Russia and a large portion of migrants advocate for maintaining relations with Moscow.
For this reason, the outcome of the elections can be evaluated not merely as the victory of one political force, but rather as a process that determines which direction the balance in Armenia's foreign policy course will lean.
However, it should be noted here that the steps taken by the Armenian government are quite effective. That is, the Pashinyan government is able to manage a policy oriented towards the US and the European Union. For instance, Armenia's representation in the CSTO has weakened after the 44-day war in 2020, and additionally, different scenarios are being worked on regarding the railway issue. Specifically, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan emphasized that Yerevan and Moscow are discussing the issue of the Russian concession of the Armenian railway at a working level. In another speech, Pashinyan proposed transferring the management of the railways to another country.
"Control over the railways can only be given to a country that has good relations with both Armenia and Russia. We want to talk to our Russian partners, we need to reach an agreement, we need to communicate. Breaking a contract is always bad, and our interstate, as well as personal, relations do not allow us to go this way; on the contrary, they help us to conduct discussions in a calm and friendly environment," the Armenian Prime Minister noted.
In the matter of railways, the Zangezur corridor (TRIPP) should also be mentioned. This corridor will be under US control for 100 years.
Today, for certain reasons, it is felt that pro-Russian Samvel Karapetyan in Armenia seemingly enjoys widespread support due to his financial capabilities and relatively Russian backing. This can also be seen from Pashinyan's recent posts. For instance, Pashinyan walks on foot in the regions, plays backgammon with people, and eats perashki and sucuk, creating an image of himself as simple. It appears there is a certain decline in the Prime Minister's ratings. However, this decline does not necessarily mean he will lose. It simply means there might be a risk of forming a coalition as a result of the elections, which Pashinyan does not want. However, recent surveys also show that a pro-Russian candidate winning the elections in Armenia does not seem possible. This is because a large portion of people in Armenia identified Russia as an enemy country in recent surveys. Strangely, Russia ranks third in the list of enemy countries for Armenia. It appears that Russia will lose to the US in the South Caucasus, just as it has in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Iran. Naturally, since the ongoing geopolitical processes are extremely complex, the situation can change at any moment.
