The geopolitical tension observed in the Middle East, particularly along the US-Israel-Iran axis, directly impacts tourism and transport flows in the region. The closure of airspace and the restriction of flights on certain routes are key factors affecting the planning of international travel, business trips, and tourist exchange. Due to its geographical location, Azerbaijan is also one of the countries that indirectly feels the effects of these processes.
At the same time, due to the tension in the region, the situation of foreign citizens who have to temporarily stay in Azerbaijan, their countries of citizenship, and how the return process is organized are also of particular importance for assessing the real picture of the current situation.
In a statement to Modern.az on the topic, Azer Allahveranov, a Member of the Milli Majlis and Chairman of the Public Union "Eurasian Migration Initiatives Platform," noted that such conflicts directly affect tourism flows and migration exchange in that region in one form or another.
“Considering that we are talking about Iran and countries belonging to the Persian Gulf region bordering Iran, which have functioned as tourism centers for many years. Precisely for this reason, the involvement of these countries in the conflict does not go without affecting the tourism sector.
It should be particularly noted that 12 countries bordering Iran have been directly or indirectly involved in the conflict in one form or another. This leads to the restriction of air flights to these destinations. Consequently, the flow of tourists to these countries decreases, and the tourism sector suffers significant damage from this.
Currently, although extensive statistical data has not been disclosed by the official bodies of these countries, various information is found on social networks. For example, there are numerous posts about tourists stranded in those countries and facing difficulties returning to their home countries. The same situation is observed concerning Azerbaijani citizens. Information has spread that some of our citizens have faced difficulties returning to Azerbaijan amidst the conflict. I have also spoken with several individuals regarding this issue, and it has become clear that they were able to return to Azerbaijan with difficulty by making transit flights through several countries.”
The Chairman of the Public Union noted that conflicts and the resulting tension deal a serious blow to the tourism industry:
“As an example, Qatar, Bahrain, as well as the city of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates and other tourism centers are affected by such incidents. Some of these cities are subjected to missile strikes. Although tourism facilities are not direct targets, the targeting of international airports and, in some cases, strikes on hotels seriously jeopardize the safety of tourists and travelers in those countries.”
A. Allahveranov also emphasized that in such situations, tourists are forced to seek various ways to leave the country:
“However, due to the restriction of air flights, this process becomes extremely difficult. Tourists often manage to return to their home countries by choosing longer routes, making transit flights through several countries, and spending more time.
In some countries, for example, the United Arab Emirates, the government tries to provide certain support to tourists. It is reported that daily food provisions and additional opportunities for temporary stay are created. However, according to the information obtained, this support does not apply to everyone, to all tourists.
For example, according to information shared by tourists staying in Dubai, while some individuals could benefit from these opportunities, others were forced to cover all expenses at their own cost. According to information I obtained, one family staying in Dubai was forced to cover their living and other needs by spending approximately 300-400 dollars daily. This represents a rather significant financial burden.
Nevertheless, even if military tension and conflicts do not directly affect tourism centers themselves, they lead to a decrease in tourist flows, restriction of flights, and jeopardizing the safety of tourists,” he concluded.
However, Jeyhun Ashurov, Chairman of Skal International Baku Tourism Professionals Association, stated that the tension between the US, Israel, and Iran and the spread of the risk of war to the Gulf region seriously affect the tourism market.
“In particular, a halt is observed in the flow of tourists coming to Azerbaijan from those countries. At the same time, some citizens planning trips from Azerbaijan to these countries and transit destinations have also postponed their journeys.
Currently, there is no specific statistics regarding the number of foreign citizens in conflict zones or in Azerbaijan. However, in such cases, airlines and tourism companies usually try to assist tourists. Even if flights are canceled, airlines either offer alternative flights or compensate the ticket value. Since such situations are considered special cases, relevant authorities and embassies also join the process to help people return home safely.”
The Association Chairman also added that a certain number of tourists from Israel, Iran, and Gulf countries were present in Azerbaijan:
“However, since it was the month of Ramadan, the tourist flow from this region is not usually very high anyway. Therefore, it is assumed that the number of tourists remaining in the country is not large.
On the other hand, coordination efforts are underway for Azerbaijani citizens abroad to return to the country at the first opportunity.
The risk of war seriously affects the tourism sector. In particular, a decrease of approximately 30-40 percent in hotel occupancy rates is observed in the capital Baku. However, the tourism sector was expecting an increase in tourist numbers during the Ramadan and Novruz holidays. Currently, it appears that a number of reservations have been canceled or postponed to later dates.”
C. Ashurov believes that if the conflict continues for a long time, the decrease in the number of tourists coming to Azerbaijan from the countries in that region may deepen further:
“For this reason, Azerbaijan must diversify its tourism market and expand relations with other countries. According to information, flights on approximately 8 routes have currently been canceled. To compensate for these losses, opening new tourism destinations, expanding cooperation with new markets, and organizing additional direct flights are considered important. These steps can partially prevent existing losses by increasing tourist flows from other markets.”
According to tourism expert Rahman Guliyev, political scandals, tensions, and especially the military confrontation in the Middle East occurring in the world today have created serious chaos in the global aviation sector:
“According to reports, more than 4,400 flights have been postponed, and hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to delay their planned trips. This situation directly affects the tourism sector, causing tourism companies to face significant financial losses and damages.
Overall, considering that Azerbaijan is geographically located in an area close to the region experiencing conflict and military tension, these processes indirectly affect our country as well. A certain decrease in the number of tourists coming to Azerbaijan is already observed. One of the main reasons for this is that a significant portion of tourists coming to Azerbaijan accounts for Gulf and Asian countries.
The expert also reminded that the current situation has caused Azerbaijani citizens to be stranded abroad:
“Evacuation flights are regularly carried out by Azerbaijan Airlines, and the process of returning citizens to the country continues. Some foreign tourists remaining in Azerbaijan are returning to their home countries via various alternative routes.
Of course, although certain difficulties arose in the first days, processes were significantly accelerated within 1 week - 10 days, and the evacuation of people was largely carried out successfully and continues to this day.
Nevertheless, a decrease in the number of tourists coming to Azerbaijan is expected in the near future. This decrease may be felt in 3 stages – the pre-war period, the war period, and the post-war period. The main reason for this is the weakening of the socio-economic situation in the countries involved in the conflict and the limitation of tourism opportunities for the population. This once again proves that a decrease in tourist flow to our country in the future is inevitable,” R. Guliyev noted.
