For two days now, rainy weather conditions have again been observed in the capital and regions. Such intensive precipitation attracts attention as one of the factors directly affecting the ecological environment both globally and within the country. The continuous nature of precipitation also actualizes discussions related to the delayed arrival of the spring season. In particular, questions regarding increased soil moisture, the condition of cultivated areas, and productivity prospects also come to the forefront.
Speaking to Modern.az on the topic, agricultural expert Vahid Maharramli stated that the issue of “excessive rain” has been frequently raised by officials recently.
"Even the heads of the National Hydrometeorology Service use these expressions. But the reality is that no institution determines the specific “norm” of rain. This is not possible and is simply an artificially created idea.
In recent years, especially since the 1980s of the 20th century, the impact of global warming has been felt more clearly. As a result, the frequency of intensive precipitation has increased. That is, more frequent and stronger rains are observed. From this perspective, using the expression “excessive rain” is not the correct approach, because that norm itself has not been specifically defined".
According to the expert, the main problem in agriculture is not rain, but the improper management of water resources:
"Existing water resources are not used efficiently in Azerbaijan. For this reason, both productivity and product quality remain low. For example, while wheat productivity in our country is below 30 centners in some cases, this indicator is above 50 centners in Uzbekistan, which is climatically warmer than Azerbaijan. Even recently, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, invited religious figures and asked them to perform the prayer for rain. Although water scarcity is not observed in Uzbekistan either, they also need water. Nevertheless, productivity is at a high level in terms of efficient use of limited water resources. This shows that the issue is more about management than climate".
He also emphasized that the impact of intensive rains on agriculture, especially crop production, is mainly positive.
"Especially during the spring season, plants' need for water increases, and the rains during this period create conditions for increased productivity. If the weather conditions remain normal hereafter, an increase in productivity is expected this year in hay production and crop farming. In some areas, especially in zones below sea level, flooding is observed. But this is more a matter of planning. It should have been taken into account beforehand that water flow directions do not change, and these risks should be calculated when construction is carried out in those areas. Forecasts are sometimes not presented correctly and on time. These precipitations are not the last, and intensive rains will continue thereafter".
V. Maharramli also drew attention to the fact that, on the other hand, an increase in hail events is observed against the backdrop of climate change:
"In recent years, the frequency of hail has significantly increased compared to previous periods. We even see a tenfold increase in hail occurrences. Generally, it is not correct to attribute the decrease in agricultural productivity solely to weather conditions. For example, last year, a decrease of 75 thousand tons was recorded in wheat production, and this cannot be explained by precipitation alone.
The main issue is to properly utilize the opportunities created by intensive rains. Artificial lakes and reservoirs should be created for collecting rainwater. Azerbaijan has sufficient opportunities for this. If water is managed correctly, there will be neither damage nor loss. On the contrary, this can have a positive impact on the development of agriculture," the expert noted.
Environmental expert Rovshan Abbasov, on the other hand, believes that excessively rainy weather conditions have a dual impact on the overall ecological situation both globally and in Azerbaijan.
"On the one hand, abundant precipitation leads to an increase in water resources, the filling of rivers and reservoirs, an improvement in soil moisture balance, and a reduction in drought risk. This can create favorable conditions for agriculture, especially during certain periods. However, on the other hand, excessive precipitation causes serious negative consequences: floods and inundations occur, the fertile layer of soil is washed away, intensifying erosion, landslides increase in mountainous areas, and pollutants are carried into water bodies, harming ecosystems".
The expert also clarified the issue regarding the delayed arrival of spring this year and the possible effects of the current weather conditions:
"Regarding the current delayed spring season, it should be noted that spring is not delayed astronomically. That is, spring begins in March as always. It is simply that the weather being cooler and rainier than normal creates the impression among people that spring has arrived late. In other words, this is not a real delay, but is related to the variability of weather conditions.
The main consequences of excessively rainy weather conditions are more related to practical and ecological problems. Flooding and transportation difficulties arise in cities, agricultural areas are damaged, infrastructure is harmed, and high humidity can accelerate the spread of certain diseases. Consequently, while such weather conditions create both beneficial and dangerous effects, their negative consequences are often more serious and widespread".
