Political tension has increased in Armenia ahead of the parliamentary elections to be held in June 2026.
Foreign experts note that pro-Russian forces in Armenia are working on a new election bloc, and their goal is to weaken the "peace agenda," which is considered Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's main political line, and to discredit his policy of rapprochement with the West.
Forces referred to as the "fifth column" also widely use the church factor. Against the backdrop of tension between Pashinyan and Garegin II, the circulation of claims such as "pressure on Christians in Armenia" abroad, especially in the USA, draws attention.
Against this backdrop, serious questions arise as to whether Nikol Pashinyan will win the elections to be held next year.
In a statement to Modern.az, political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu stated that one of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's main goals currently is to divide the church:
“Nikol Pashinyan's party won the municipal elections in the Etchmiadzin area, where the Armenian church is located. This alone could ensure Pashinyan's victory in the parliamentary elections. One of Pashinyan's main goals is to divide the church. I believe that with this approach, he will achieve his desire.”
E. Shahinoglu stated that Russia has no opportunities to interfere in the elections:
“Russia currently has no such strong figure in Armenia. Although Russia resorted to various methods, it did not succeed. Kocharyan and Sargsyan have no ratings. They put forward Karapetyan, and he was arrested. I do not believe that Pashinyan will release him from prison before the parliamentary elections. Only the church remains. The church could form an alliance and weaken Pashinyan. But Pashinyan is also doing his part in this direction. If an extraordinary event, terror, or coup does not occur, the probability of Pashinyan and his party winning the election is gradually increasing.”
According to the political scientist, Nikol Pashinyan may move the elections earlier than scheduled, taking into account attempts at terror and coups:
“It is difficult to say whether there will be a terror or coup attempt, because Armenian radicals are good at these things. They have proven this with their actions in the past. Pashinyan also calculates this possibility. I believe that Pashinyan may hold the elections earlier, not in June, with the aim of disrupting the plans of the radical opposition.”
