The influential US publication "The Washington Post" has published an analytical article analyzing possible scenarios of violent internal conflict in Iran. The article notes that new risks may emerge for regional states if large-scale chaos and a security crisis arise in the country.
Referring to the opinions of some experts, the article states that in such a situation, Azerbaijan may be forced to take certain steps to ensure the security of its compatriots. Analysts do not rule out that this possibility could come to the fore with the political and diplomatic support of Turkey.
At the same time, it is emphasized that the aforementioned approaches are not official decisions or confirmed plans, but merely discussions conducted within the framework of possible scenarios. Currently, there is no official statement regarding military intervention between Azerbaijan and Iran.
In a statement to Modern.az, political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu said that Azerbaijan must be ready for all scenarios in Iran:
“Protests may occur again in Iran. The probability is high because no problems have been solved. The root causes of the problems remain. Moreover, a war could start, strikes could be launched against Iran, centrifugal tendencies in Iran could strengthen, and the government could fall. There is a possibility of the government fragmenting. Therefore, we must be ready for all scenarios.
Our compatriots may also expand their struggle for their rights. That is, of course, we must protect our compatriots. It is true that land borders are closed. But if a humanitarian crisis occurs, we cannot leave our compatriots in a difficult situation. For example, Turkey is also considering a plan to establish a buffer zone where Iranian residents can be accommodated if a humanitarian crisis arises. We should also seriously consider this.
However, if weapons are used against our compatriots, it could accelerate the process of Iran's disintegration. In this situation, neither Azerbaijan nor even Turkey can remain spectators. That is, we will use all means to protect our compatriots.”
The political scientist added that he also spoke about America's military intervention in Iran:
“America believes that with military intervention in Iran, the regime will weaken, change, and new figures will emerge. Or, a wave of protests will start again to weaken the regime. This is the main component of the plan. The Iranian regime, on the other hand, believes that if it starts a war with America, it can unite society against the US, similar to the eight-year war with Iraq. But this is a difficult matter.
Now is not 1979-80. It was also thought that a twelve-day war with Israel would unite Iranian society against a common enemy. However, as seen, protests resumed after a while. Therefore, if there is a US military intervention, even if the Iranian regime does not completely change, it will weaken, and the probability of it accepting America's terms will increase.”
