The situation in Iran is causing increasing concern for Ankara. A significant weakening or collapse of the Iranian regime creates both potential threats and opportunities for Turkey in the long term.
Ankara's concerns are well-founded. If the US and Israel launch a full-scale war against Iran, Turkey will face a refugee influx. While approximately 4 million refugees came to Turkey from Syria, which has a population of over 20 million, Iran, with a population of over 90 million, could generate a significantly larger flow. Turkey is exploring options to create a buffer zone in the event of the Iranian government's collapse: Ankara has already strengthened security along its 560-kilometer border with Iran and erected technologically advanced physical barriers.
On the other hand, the suspension or significant reduction of trade with Iran, currently exceeding 10 billion dollars, could negatively impact Turkey's fragile economy. However, the collapse of the regime and the lifting of sanctions against Iran would also open up significant economic opportunities for Turkey. This could include the acquisition of larger volumes of energy resources within the framework of long-term agreements, thereby reducing Ankara's dependence on other suppliers, including Russia and the US. This would also open prospects for increased exports of industrial and consumer goods, expanded trade, and the development of joint investments and projects, particularly in energy and transport logistics, including new regional routes.
Ankara is particularly concerned about attempts to create a Kurdistan state on Iranian territory, similar to past events in Syria. However, within the framework of combating separatism, Turkey may resort to similar steps in Northern Iran as it did in Syria.
The collapse of the Islamic Republic could lead to the strengthening of Israel's position in the Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, and an increase in American control. However, Ankara can mitigate these risks by resolving its disagreements with Israel (including through Azerbaijan's mediation) and by further rapprochement with Washington and London. Considering that Turkey, as a NATO member, closely coordinates its actions with its Western partners, such a scenario does not seem unattainable.
The key point of a regime change in Iran would be the creation of a friendly South Azerbaijan state with a population of 30 million. This would provide Turkey-Azerbaijan, as well as the entire Turkic world, with additional influence in the region, strengthen the country's position in the region, and create a new strategic ally. The Iranian crisis could become the greatest challenge of the 21st century, but with the right strategy, a window of historical opportunity will open. This includes strengthening Turkey's position in the region, expanding trade and investment ties, forming new allies, and significantly increasing the country's influence on its eastern borders.
It is noteworthy that Iran itself is beginning to escalate tensions against Ankara. The announcement by Turkish intelligence agencies (MIT), together with the police, of the discovery of a suspected Iranian spy network and the arrest of 6 individuals on charges of collecting confidential information about military installations and planning attacks is a form of this negativity.
If events unfold as noted, we will see Turkey strengthen further, and the Russian factor will also lose its former power in the Caucasus and the Middle East.
