The US administration has agreed to hold talks with Iranian representatives in Oman, and consultations are expected to take place on February 6. Barak Ravid, a journalist for the US internet portal "Axios", wrote about this on the "X" social network. According to the journalist's source in one of the Arab states, talks between the US and Iran regarding the nuclear program are expected to be held in Oman on Friday.
Thus, the administration of US President Donald Trump has agreed to Iran's request that the talks not be held in Turkey. As the journalist added, consultations are still ongoing regarding whether Arab and Muslim states will participate in the talks in Oman.
Iran's reluctance to hold the meetings in Turkey raises certain questions. The fact that this country specifically chose Oman is a noteworthy point.
Security expert from Turkey, Yücel Karauz, spoke to Modern.az about 4 main reasons why Iran did not choose Turkey:
The primary reason Iran chose Oman instead of Turkey is that Oman is a country for “classic back-channel diplomacy”. For many years, Oman has been used as the most reliable channel for secret and open contacts between the US and Iran. The first secret rounds of nuclear talks in 2013 were also held specifically in Oman. The Muscat leadership is not perceived as a “party” in the domestic politics of either Washington or Tehran. This point is extremely critical for Iran.
On the other hand, Turkey is no longer a “neutral platform” but a regional actor. Today, Turkey is both a NATO member and active along the Syria–Iraq–Caucasus line. It also conducts numerous political activities simultaneously with Israel, Russia, the US, Azerbaijan, and Gulf countries. At the same time, Turkey plays a game-changing role in the defense and energy sectors. All of this transforms Turkey from a “host mediator” into a direct actor at the negotiating table. From Iran's perspective, a meeting held in Turkey would mean negotiations conducted under Turkey's political weight. Official Tehran does not want this.
The third issue is that Iran is also sending a clear message to Washington with this. Iran's message here is: “These talks will be between two parties. Let's not bring regional powers to the table.” Here, the discussion is about Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Iran does not want these countries to assume a role.
Finally, the fourth nuance is related to the security and intelligence factor. Ankara is a center of high-intensity diplomatic and intelligence activity.
Iran prefers Oman's “calm and controlled environment” due to potential leaks, particularly concerning Israel, the activity of Western intelligence services, and media pressure. From this perspective, Muscat is considered safer”.
The expert commented on the likelihood of Arab or Muslim countries joining the process as follows:
The current situation is that Oman is the host, Saudi Arabia is currently outside the process, and Qatar and the UAE are in an observer position. Turkey, however, is not an official party. The talks are intended to be kept within a narrow framework, in the US-Iran-Oman format. The inclusion of other countries would turn the process into a “mini-conference,” which Iran specifically avoids. At the current stage, Turkey's likelihood of joining the process is low. However, there is an important nuance. Although Turkey is not at the table, it is not outside the process. Currently, Ankara is the only regional power capable of conducting parallel contacts with Iran through direct diplomatic channels, with the US via the NATO line, and with Gulf countries on energy and security issues”.
Y. Karauz emphasized that Turkey has a high probability of being a mediator in the subsequent stages of the process:
“That is, if the meeting in Oman melts the ice, and the process moves forward after technical issues, namely the easing of sanctions and regional tensions, are discussed, then Turkey could be included in the second phase. Especially on topics concerning Syria, Iraq, energy corridors, and the Eastern Mediterranean, it is impossible to make progress without Turkey".
