For March 2026, the global nuclear balance has reached a critical point. The world's main nuclear powers still possess thousands of warheads, while arms control agreements have expired.
Against this backdrop, a military campaign jointly launched by the US and Israel in Iran is being conducted under the accusation that the country is enriching uranium and attempting to acquire nuclear weapons.
Modern.az recalls that against the backdrop of the evolving military-political crisis concerning Iran's nuclear program, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that if any country in the region acquires nuclear weapons, Ankara will also join the nuclear arms race. In parallel, Polish President Karol Navrotski also made a statement about his country increasing its military power based on its nuclear potential. For a period after Russia's attack on Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy had also made statements about restoring his country's nuclear potential, which it had voluntarily renounced due to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Thus, countries that had renounced the prospect of becoming nuclear states for many years are beginning to consider this step to adapt to the world's changing and unstable geopolitical situation.
Currently, there are countries that, while not nuclear states themselves, effectively host nuclear warheads of other countries on their territory. Russia has deployed its nuclear warheads in Belarus, a new addition to this list. US nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are deployed in several NATO countries. For example, these weapons are stored in Turkey itself – at Incirlik Air Base, as well as in Britain, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. In total, there are approximately 150 nuclear bombs in 6 countries. It should also be noted that in 2016, several nuclear bombs were moved from Turkey to Romania, and their carriers – B-52 and B-1B Lancer strategic bomber aircraft – are periodically deployed.
The European countries on this list and Turkey previously signed an agreement with the US on nuclear weapons sharing. This means that the American arsenal can be stored on their territory, but these nuclear weapons can only be used with Washington's permission.
Currently, Russia, the US, China, France, Great Britain, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel are known to possess nuclear weapons. Among them, Israel and North Korea have become de facto nuclear states by circumventing international treaties.
It should be noted that the expansion of the nuclear club is currently limited both by the pressure from major powers and by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, one of the few remaining agreements on this topic from the past era.
However, if we consider the existing list, it is clear that some countries could acquire nuclear weapons quite quickly. This primarily applies to states with developed nuclear energy, their own nuclear research, advanced industry, and missile sciences. For example, according to some estimates, Japan and South Korea have the capability to develop nuclear weapons within a few years. Brazil announced in the autumn of 2025 its intention to "review plans for the use of nuclear technology, including for defense purposes" and to increase funding for research and development. Iran, which we mentioned in the introduction of the article, also already possesses a developed missile and nuclear industry, as well as a significant amount of enriched uranium.
Since Saudi Arabia does not have its own nuclear power plants and an advanced missile program, Turkey and Saudi Arabia will face a more difficult period in this regard. Meanwhile, although Ankara's ballistic missile program currently lags behind global leaders, the rapid development of the country's military industry makes this prospect imminent. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed military ally, also has the potential to share nuclear technologies with Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
The same issue applies to Germany. Currently, Germany has the potential to easily acquire nuclear weapons.
Russia currently remains the primary nuclear power, with an estimated 6200 to 6300 nuclear warheads in its arsenal.
The US, on the other hand, is reported to have slightly fewer – around 5500 nuclear warheads in this field.
China is also becoming the fastest-growing nuclear power. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Beijing's nuclear arsenal will reach approximately 600 warheads by early 2026, which is significantly more than the few hundred it had just a decade ago.
Apart from the leading powers, several countries possess smaller but strategically significant nuclear forces. France has approximately 290 warheads, while Great Britain has about 225. Pakistan (approximately 180 warheads) and India (approximately 170) continue to gradually increase their arsenals amidst ongoing regional tensions.
Israel, which does not officially admit to possessing nuclear weapons, has approximately 90 warheads. North Korea is believed to have approximately 50 warheads, and the country continues to develop missiles and nuclear warheads.
The instability engulfing the world, the notion of "international law not working" acknowledged even at the highest levels, and conflicts spiraling out of control increase the likelihood that the world will face a new and more destructive nuclear war. This time, the conflict will not be comparable to the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in 1945, nor to the "Cuban Missile Crisis" that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war in 1962. What happens this time will be more acute, more serious, and more destructive.
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