On April 1, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited Russia and met with Vladimir Putin. The meeting was marked by several points. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated during his meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the Kremlin that he was aware of Yerevan's complaints against the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
In addition, Putin emphasized that he was closely following the struggle between political parties ahead of the parliamentary elections in Armenia and requested that pro-Russian forces not be hindered from participating in the elections.
How this meeting will affect the elections in Armenia is a noteworthy point.
Commenting on the Pashinyan-Putin meeting to Modern.az, political scientist Nazim Jafarsoy stated that the timing chosen by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for his visit to Russia is of critical importance:
“For a long time, Armenia was under severe pressure due to the Ukraine war. During this time, certain opportunities arose for it. It established relations with Russia in the direction of a shadow economy, using it to circumvent Western sanctions. It was precisely for this reason that the trade volume between Armenia and Russia significantly increased after the war. However, especially in the last year, Pashinyan has begun to orient Armenia's foreign policy towards the West. Within this framework, it is taking certain steps towards a customs union with the European Union. Even from time to time, the issue of a referendum on joining the European Union has come to the agenda. As a result, Russia's attempts to circumvent sanctions through Armenia have slowed down. Thus, in the last year, the trade volume between Armenia and Russia has decreased by more than 3 billion. This creates serious pressure on the Armenian economy. Pashinyan's visit is primarily aimed at finding a solution to this situation that has arisen in the economic sphere. Pashinyan has a desire to be represented in both the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. Vladimir Putin's statement during the meeting that it is not possible for Armenia to be represented in both organizations simultaneously was a clear rejection of Pashinyan's desire. A second nuance here is the negative impact of the Iran war on Armenia. For 35 years, Iran played a vital role for Armenia, which was in a hostile position with Azerbaijan and had stalled relations with Turkey. The start of the war eliminated Iran's role as a safe logistics route for Armenia, putting it under severe pressure. The customs agreement with Europe and the risks created by the war in Iran are making the situation increasingly dramatic for the Armenian government. This is because parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia on July 7. Both of the nuances I have listed have begun to turn into the most significant parameters seriously affecting the socio-economic situation of the population within the country.”
The political scientist noted that Pashinyan's visit to Russia also has a geopolitical dimension:
“Various manipulations are evident regarding Russia's proxies in the opposition, and also its intention to exert serious pressure on the election process through its economic capabilities in Armenia, primarily in the energy and food sectors. Even from time to time, the 'Moldovan scenario' is discussed in Armenia. Media outlets close to the Armenian opposition subtly, and sometimes very openly, disseminate this idea through experts. This leads to pre-election challenges against Pashinyan. Taking advantage of this opportunity, Putin demanded the active participation of Armenian citizens in Russia, and individuals close to him, even those holding Russian citizenship, in political processes. This can actually be characterized as Russia's interference in Armenia's internal politics, as well as a form of exerting pressure on Pashinyan. However, Pashinyan publicly rejected this. Thus, it was explicitly stated that Samvel Karepetyan and his supporters would not be able to participate in the July elections. Nothing explicit was said about the participation of the diaspora in Russia in the elections. This is because they are citizens of Armenia. However, since diaspora representatives constitute an anti-Pashinyan voter base, administrative measures will be used to restrict their participation in the elections. It is likely that their voting opportunities in Russia will be limited. For example, as in Moldova, the number of polling stations and ballot boxes will be limited relative to the population size.”
The political scientist emphasized that one of the noteworthy points was Putin's statement regarding post-election relations:
“Putin openly stated that, regardless of the election results, they were interested in deepening and developing cooperation with Armenia. This was the issue that attracted my attention the most. In fact, with this statement by Putin, the Kremlin announced that Pashinyan's victory would be accepted. That is, it is better for the Kremlin if pro-Russian candidates win. However, Russia does not intend to use all its 'trump cards' to absolutely remove Pashinyan from power. This was precisely the most significant outcome of the visit for Pashinyan.”
