US President Donald Trump announced that a 2-week ceasefire agreement has been reached with Iran. During this period, the parties will try to finalize a peace agreement. The parties will meet in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, which mediated the ceasefire. Iran demands the lifting of sanctions and the withdrawal of US forces from the region.
It is of interest whether the parties will achieve a final peace in these two weeks.
In a statement to Modern.az, former Foreign Minister Tofiq Zulfugarov stated that the US has changed its tactics:
“Firstly, it should be noted that the question of who won or who lost here would be inappropriate. Because, unequivocally, the balance of power is on the side of the US. Now we must pay attention to one issue. This point is related to the fact that the US has changed its tactics. For example, after military operations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Afghanistan, the US used the tactic of changing governments. However, after realizing that this was long-term and very costly financially, the US side chose a new tactic. For example, the case of Venezuela can be cited. Although Nicolas Maduro was captured there, all the people operating in his governance system remained in place. Simply put, they listen to what Trump says. Oil exports are currently under US control. I do not rule out that, in a veiled manner, matters in Iran will also be managed in the same way. That is, for the US, it does not matter who governs the country. It is simply interesting whether those who govern will submit to their political will. It is expected that the US tactics will continue in the same manner. Considering this issue, Iran and its surviving political elite will now speak of victory in terms of propaganda to restore their political influence. But de facto, it is clear that in the two-week negotiations, the issue will unequivocally be resolved in the manner I described.”
T. Zulfugarov also noted that this should not be expected to completely eliminate the tension.
Former diplomat Nasib Nasibli, however, noted that achieving a ceasefire does not yet mean the end of the war:
“During these 12 days, people will hold their breath watching events unfold, either in front of their televisions or by following internet sites. A two-week ceasefire is not yet the end of the war and can be broken at any moment. In my opinion, the end of the war is beneficial for both sides. Trump had been preparing to strike Iran's vital facilities at 03:00 AM. He was ready to strike oil and gas facilities, bridges, and power stations. According to Trump's statement, this meant Iran returning to a primitive communal structure. Naturally, this statement was conditional. But still, it was not possible to achieve more than this. That is, even if the objects and infrastructure mentioned by Trump were struck and Iran was left without industry, the main target would not be the regime or the government, but ordinary people. People would also fall into a very desperate situation. It is difficult to predict how desperate people would behave towards the US. As for the Iranian side, truly, there is no point in continuing the war and dragging the country further into disaster. Trump has stated that he accepted certain conditions for negotiations. Perhaps, when these conditions are discussed, they will not agree on them. In my opinion, these conditions do not meet the demands of either the US or Israel. But in any case, sitting at the table and conducting discussions around certain conditions is better than continuing the war. It is not possible for Iran's conditions to be accepted by the US and Israel. At the same time, Arab countries fell out with Iran during the war. They will also not agree to these conditions. In any case, the first contacts will begin on the 10th of the month. We will watch and see.”
N. Nasibli also spoke about the situation that could arise if no results are achieved in the negotiations:
“If an agreement on the conditions is not reached, the continuation of a new wave of war is one of the possible scenarios. That is, Trump's order to strike civilian targets—power stations, bridges, and oil facilities—at 03:00 AM today could be carried out. In my opinion, this could be a greater disaster for Iran. Negotiations will continue on some issues. As stated in the document, it is not possible for the US and Israel to accept all of Iran's conditions. It is possible that the ceasefire may be extended phase by phase.”
Zardusht Alizadeh, former chairman of the Social Democratic Party and political analyst, assessed Trump's inability to deliver more devastating blows as a welcome development:
“An overreaching Trump could not deliver more devastating blows to Iran. Trump, who genuinely desired this, might also have been afraid to take this step. In short, he had no other choice, as Iran was rejecting his ultimatums. The Iranian people demonstrated great determination and resolve. People poured into the streets, saying, “If you strike, strike us.” That is, this was a war crime. Trump would have proven his foolishness by ordering a strike on Iran. Apparently, at the last moment, some wiser people around him explained that escalating the situation would not end well for the US, Israel, or the West as a whole. Thus, Trump was forced to make a two-week concession. What will happen during these two weeks? Iran's demand is clear: it does not want a ceasefire; it wants the cessation of military attacks by the US and Israel. For this, firm guarantees are needed.”
According to the political analyst, only three countries can provide these guarantees – China, Russia, and India:
“China, India, and Russia can provide these guarantees. All three states possess nuclear weapons. The guarantees must be formulated in such a way that neither Israel nor the US can attack Iran thereafter. On the other hand, this preliminary agreement also reflects the cessation of Israel's aggression against Lebanon. Iran considers not only itself but also Muslim movements. Naturally, the Strait of Hormuz will remain under Iran's control. Iran will simply allow ships to gradually exit from there for certain payment amounts. This is not a major loss. The main thing is that control over the Strait of Hormuz remains in Iran's hands. According to reports, the US has not only committed to stopping military aggression but will also be responsible for implementing some mechanism for compensating the damage incurred. This mechanism can only be Iran's and Oman's control over the Strait of Hormuz. Praise be to God that there were no major massacres. The Iranian people already suffered great losses and destruction. The US once again proved itself to be a purely imperialist state.”
