The situation around the US and Iran is rapidly escalating, with Washington increasing its military presence in the Middle East, deploying aviation and naval forces to the region. Although political rhetoric has hardened, diplomatic channels remain open, and as of February 17, 2026, both military and diplomatic scenarios are being considered in parallel.
Modern.az reports, citing foreign media, that in recent weeks, US President Donald Trump has increased pressure on Iran, stating that regime change in Tehran could be considered a possible outcome, while also emphasizing that diplomacy remains a priority. According to Western media reports, the Pentagon is discussing the deployment of a second carrier strike group to the region, while the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is currently operating in the Middle East. Furthermore, over 50 combat aircraft of F-35, F-22, and F-16 types have been deployed to US bases in the region, air defense and electronic warfare systems have been strengthened, and the combat readiness level of the bases has been raised. Experts believe that the formed military grouping is capable of conducting a large-scale air and sea operation within a few weeks.
According to military analysts, the simultaneous deployment of two carrier strike groups in the region signifies dozens of ship-based combat aircraft, escort vessels armed with cruise missiles, anti-missile defense systems, as well as extensive intelligence and strike capabilities. Such a concentration of force is typically carried out either as a tool for political pressure or for the purpose of preparing for possible military operations.
Despite the escalating tensions, diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran continue. Consultations held in Geneva with the mediation of European diplomats discussed restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, verification mechanisms, partial easing of sanctions, and security guarantees in the region. Sources indicate that the talks are difficult and there has been no significant progress yet, but it is emphasized that the parties are maintaining communication channels. Experts do not rule out that the US military activity is being used as an additional means of pressure to strengthen its position in the negotiations.
According to analytical assessments, in the event of a possible escalation, potential targets could include infrastructure related to Iran's nuclear program, weapons depots, facilities belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and command and control centers. Alongside this, it is specifically noted that no decision has been made at the official level regarding the commencement of military operations.
Experts state that a possible military strike poses serious risks for the region. In such a scenario, Iran is likely to launch missile strikes against US bases and allies in the region, attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, and carry out cyberattacks, which could lead to a large-scale regional escalation.
At the current stage, the main confirmed points are that the US is strengthening its military presence in the Middle East, various response scenarios are being considered, and the talks in Geneva continue under difficult conditions. Overall, the situation remains extremely sensitive, and Washington is currently pursuing a parallel path of pressure and diplomacy, with the direction of the process depending on the outcome of diplomatic contacts.
