Against the backdrop of the next wave of tension in the Middle East, discussions regarding the stability of Israel's and Iran's political systems and the effectiveness of their governance models are expected to intensify. In this context, comparing the two countries in terms of demographic indicators yields interesting results.
Modern.az reports that in 1950, 75 years ago, Iran's demographic indicators significantly surpassed those of Israel. During that period, the birth rate was 6.95 in Iran and 4.52 in Israel. 844 thousand children were born annually in Iran, while only 43 thousand were born in Israel. Thus, there was approximately a 20-fold difference in the number of births. This ratio was largely maintained until the early 1980s, i.e., until the Iran-Iraq War.
In 1990, while over 103 thousand children were born in Israel, this figure was 1.72 million in Iran. The ratio was at 6:100. Although the difference in the total fertility rate decreased during that period, it was still noticeable. The intersection of demographic indicators, a turning point sometimes referred to as the “Jewish-Persian intersection,” occurred in 1996. The birth rate in both countries equalized at 2.95 children per woman.
After this period, a qualitative decline began to be observed in Iran's demographic indicators, while stability was maintained in Israel. In 2010, the ratio of children born reached 12.19 percent, and the birth rate in Israel was significantly higher than in Iran: 3.03 children per woman in Israel, compared to 1.77 children in Iran.
By 2025, the difference has almost doubled. The total fertility rate in Israel is 2.87, while in Iran it is 1.37. The ratio of newborns has risen to 20.11 percent, considered a record level for recent decades, even centuries, and the upward trend continues.
If current demographic trends are maintained, by the end of the 21st century, for the first time since antiquity (after 2500 years), the number of children born in Israel could reach the same level as in Iran. Against the backdrop of its increasing human resources and the continued demographic decline in the region's key players – Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – Israel's economic and geopolitical capabilities are projected to expand further.
