The power structure in Iran is designed to exist despite repeated shake-ups of the regime. The current Iranian government has deliberately built such a system, taking this stage into account.
Modern.az reports, citing foreign media, that Iran is facing such a serious stage for the first time since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
As a result of joint US and Israeli airstrikes that began on February 28, 2026, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several high-ranking military commanders have been killed, with the number of fatalities exceeding 1200. The number of injured has reached 12000. The country's infrastructure has also been damaged.
The US and Israel have stated that their goal is to change the regime and have called on Iranians to overthrow their government.
How does Iran's governance system differ from the administrative structures of other Middle Eastern countries?
Sebastien Boussois, a Middle East researcher at the European Geopolitical Institute of Belgium, has named this organization of Iranian power the “Hydra (multi-headed dragon) structure.”
This system combines tightly controlled state institutions, ideological propaganda, the unity of the elite class, and a fragmented opposition.
It is expected that the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will continue his father's strict policies.
Experts state that, unlike countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria, the government in Iran is more resilient to external shocks. The reason for this is its system of security structures based on ideological motivation.
Bernard Hourcade, director of a French institute, stated in the context of his research on Iran that a typical dictatorship usually centers around one leader, but in Iran, on the contrary, a “polydictatorship” system operates. This signifies the unity of supporters of political Islam with proponents of strict Iranian nationalism.
Power is divided among several centers — religious bodies, armed forces, and large economic sectors. Therefore, it is more difficult to overthrow the system compared to a single-leader dictatorship.
One of the significant bodies is the Guardian Council of the Constitution. This Council can block laws and disqualify candidates in elections. This reduces the likelihood of any group seriously challenging the state.
Although Iran is considered an authoritarian state, citizens are given the opportunity to vote in elections, including presidential elections, at a symbolic level. However, the process is tightly controlled: candidates are vetted by the Guardian Council of the Constitution, and those not sufficiently committed to the Islamic Republic are blocked.
In Iran, state institutions are considered the «bones» of the regime, while armed structures are its «muscles».
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a military organization considered the dominant force. It manages missile and drone programs and carries out key regional operations.
This military organization also possesses strong political and economic influence. Through volunteer military forces called Basij, it also holds sway in business and spheres of influence.
It should be noted that the ideology of martyrdom has a strong influence in military units.
In the command hierarchy, an independent commander (under necessary circumstances) is appointed up to three levels down to ensure continuity of governance.
It is predicted that if the regime survives, the organization's powers will further increase.
A large part of Iran's economy is under the control of state-affiliated institutions, including charitable foundations. Over time, these foundations have transformed into large structures owning thousands of companies in various sectors of the economy.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also has a business role in the economic system.
Although Western sanctions have generally dealt a serious blow to the Iranian economy, experts believe that such structures help protect the elite and keep them interested in the survival of the existing system.
Religious factors also play a significant role in maintaining power in the country.
The revolution created a robust network of religious, political, and educational institutions, and these institutions still shape the state ideology.
The Iranian opposition has existed in a fragmented state.
The opposition includes reformists, monarchists, leftist groups, diaspora movements (e.g., the National Council of Resistance of Iran), and various ethnic organizations.
After the revolution, due to the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), the establishment of political parties took a backseat, mainly
In recent years, a series of protests have occurred in the country:
The Green Movement of 2009
Demonstrations that began with the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022
However, these protests lacked unified leadership and were harshly suppressed by the authorities.
A strong wave of protests occurred last year and this year. There are claims that the son of the last Shah has spurred expertise from abroad.
The government maintains strict control over the internet. It persecutes activists abroad using AI-based surveillance systems and cyber units.
For years, Iranians were afraid to demand regime change because they observed the consequences of US military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The events of the “Arab Spring” also increased this caution.
However, many Iranians now believe that the state is insufficient in meeting basic needs (jobs, clean water) and is increasingly using harsh force to suppress protests.
The brutal suppression of the new wave of protests in January, with thousands of demonstrators killed, has further intensified this discontent.
Analysts note that authoritarian regimes typically come to an end when three conditions occur simultaneously:
Mass popular mobilization;
Fragmentation of the ruling elite;
Defection of armed structures to the opposition side.
In the past, Iran has often faced the first factor, but according to experts, the other two factors have almost never been observed.
However, the end of this Islamic Republic is considered inevitable. If such a situation were to occur as a result of foreign military intervention, the consequences could be even more severe. But it is not expected in the near future.
