The ongoing war between the US-Israel coalition and Iran continues to have a serious impact on the global economy through energy markets and supply chains.
Modern.az reports that, according to a Reuters analysis, countries highly dependent on oil and gas imports face the greatest risks. Developing economies, especially those with limited financial capabilities, are in a more vulnerable position.
Europe's leading economies are also not immune to this pressure. Germany and Italy face the risk of declining manufacturing activity due to their high share of energy imports. In the United Kingdom, pressure on the energy sector and rising inflation could lead to higher interest rates and an increased financial burden on the population. Japan faces both currency and inflation risks as it imports almost all of its oil and a large portion of its gas through the Strait of Hormuz.
Developing countries – India, Turkey, and Middle Eastern states – are also under severe economic pressure. India imports approximately 90% of its oil, and price increases are already affecting the rupee exchange rate and GDP growth forecasts. Turkey is battling inflation and currency pressure, being forced to use reserves to keep the lira stable.
Countries with weaker economies – Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Egypt – are taking the heaviest blow. These countries are experiencing rising fuel and food prices, reduced working hours, currency depreciation, and a decline in tourism and export revenues.
The escalation of the conflict is linked to US and Israeli strikes on Iranian military facilities. This increases the risk of supply restrictions in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil is transported.
Increases in energy carrier prices and supply disruptions are already intensifying global inflationary pressure and deepening economic difficulties. Reuters emphasizes that the effects of this crisis are unevenly distributed, with energy importers and countries with limited financial reserves bearing the brunt.
Experts warn that if the conflict continues, the global economy could face a deeper energy crisis, rising oil and gas prices, and intensified inflation. The most vulnerable countries, however, remain with minimal capacity to adapt to this situation.
