Following the announcement of a 2-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, a rapid decline in oil prices has been observed in the global market. Also, the price of “black gold” immediately dropped by 15%, falling below the 92-dollar level for the first time since March 11, 2026. It is also of interest how much oil prices will fall if peace is established between the parties.
Ilham Shaban, head of the Oil Research Center, told Modern.az that the current price reduction observed in the oil market is mostly related to psychological and initial reactions:
“At the current stage, the reaction of market participants is mainly due to the US's positive approach to Iran's proposals and its openness to negotiations. This has created an emotional background, leading to an approximately 15 percent drop in oil prices.”
The oil expert stated that we will be able to see a more realistic market reaction after the results of the negotiations in Islamabad are announced on April 10, and the official positions of the parties become clear:
“It is expected that the initial signals regarding the direction of oil prices will already be formed by Friday evening. On Monday, it will be possible to observe the more settled price impacts of the announced two-week ceasefire.”
The fact that oil prices have recently been above 100 dollars was precisely due to the risk factors created by the war:
“This was an indicator of increasing uncertainty and threats in energy markets. Although these risks have not been completely eliminated, they have decreased to some extent, and the market is reacting accordingly. It should be noted that before the war, the price of “Brent” crude oil was traded at approximately 70 dollars.”
Can 1 barrel of oil fall below 65 dollars?
“65 dollars is the average price indicator projected for 2026. Over the past month, we have sold oil at prices of 100 dollars and above. It is difficult to accurately predict how prices will change over the next 8 months. This will directly depend on the development of global processes and how political and economic factors will form,” he concluded.
